Everbright Futures 0427 Gold Commentary: Geopolitical and Policy Factors Exert Dual Pressure Before the Holiday, Gold Price Continues to Fluctuate

　　Overall, COMEX gold is seeing narrow fluctuations and, as of writing, is relatively stable, with the market sentiment turning more cautious.

　　In terms of geopolitics, the standoff between the US and Iran continues. After the ceasefire agreement expired on April 22, the outlook for further negotiations has not improved. The US has announced it will push for a second round of talks while at the same time continuing to issue signals of military threats. On the other hand, Iran has refused to participate in the new round of consultations and has further tightened control over the passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Israel has stated that its military action against Iran is "not over yet." All in all, the Middle East situation remains in a state of confrontation, but the market's marginal reaction to geopolitical risks has weakened.

　　On the policy side, the Federal Reserve will hold its April FOMC meeting this week, and the market generally expects rates to remain unchanged. According to CME FedWatch data, expectations for rate cuts within this year have already been compressed to less than one. Compared to the decision itself, the market pays more attention to statements about inflation and the policy path in the post-meeting communiqué, which will provide direction for gold in the short term.

　　In summary, gold prices face dual pressures from the geopolitical stalemate and policy tightening expectations before the holiday, limiting short-term upward potential. However, geopolitical issues themselves and the potential risk of stagflation still give gold medium- to long-term allocation value. With the domestic May Day holiday approaching, investors are advised to control their positions, keep a light position during the break, and wait for a clearer direction after the holiday to enter the market.

　　Source: Everbright Futures Research Institute

　　Author: Yao Tao

　　Practicing Qualification: F3082336

　　Trading Consulting Qualification: Z0018553

Editor: Zhu Henan