Prediction market volume tops $25 billion monthly as retail activity dominates, crypto drives onboarding: report

Prediction market volume climbed to $25.7 billion in March, a 10.6% jump from February, with most users trading under $10,000, according to a report from Bitget Wallet, produced in collaboration with Polymarket.

The report is based on 1.29 million wallets tracked in the first quarter. It shows that 82.3% of users traded less than $10,000 over the period, with growth concentrated among micro, light, and mid-tier retail users. At the same time, activity expanded across crypto, sports, and political markets as users returned more frequently and engaged across multiple categories.  

Per the report, crypto is the primary entry point into prediction markets, accounting for 39.6% of activity among micro users.

Bitcoin event contracts alone drew about 593,000 users in the first quarter, the report said, generating $5.42 billion in volume, and making it the largest crypto market by participation. Ethereum markets followed with $1.19 billion in volume and 294,000 users, while Solana markets recorded $420 million and 185,000 users. XRP-linked contracts reached $308 million across 132,000 users.

The report attributes crypto’s onboarding role to continuous market access, familiar price dynamics, and low entry thresholds, with median trade sizes typically around $2 to $3. While crypto facilitates initial participation, sustained engagement shows a shift toward markets tied to recurring real-world events.

Bitget Wallet said user engagement deepens through category expansion rather than larger trade sizes. Micro users averaged 2.5 active days and 1.45 categories in Q1 2026, while mid-tier users reached 9.9 active days and 2.34 categories.

Sports led all categories with $10.1 billion in volume in the first quarter, supported by continuous global events and repeat participation cycles. Political markets followed with $5 billion, including $2.41 billion tied to geopolitics, while crypto-related markets totaled $7.3 billion over the same period.

Other segments, including pop culture, finance, weather, and science and technology, recorded comparatively smaller volumes but contributed to the broader expansion in category participation, according to the report.