Deutsche Bank strategist: US stock market Q2 corporate earnings are expected to significantly surpass expectations

德意志银行 July 1st｜Deutsche Bank stated that the favorable macroeconomic situation and the improvement in the technology sector will support US companies in surpassing previously high market expectations for second quarter earnings. The bank's strategist team, led by Benjamin Chada, wrote that the global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index has rebounded significantly, oil prices are rising, the US dollar is weakening, and earnings from artificial intelligence-related businesses are growing rapidly. These multiple factors together are expected to push the year-on-year earnings growth rate of US listed companies to reach 29.3%, about 3 percentage points higher than consensus market expectations. The guidance given by institutions for second quarter corporate performance is generally very optimistic; consequently, the market has raised the consensus growth rate expectations for S&P 500 index earnings to 26.2%. This figure not only surpasses the four-year high of 25.2% set in the first quarter, but is also double the highest record of earnings season expectations during all previous non-recessionary recovery cycles.