Bitwise says bitcoin’s floor is rising despite market challenges

While most of crypto Twitter obsesses over where Bitcoin’s price might bottom out, Bitwise Asset Management is making a different argument: stop worrying about the floor and start thinking about the ceiling.

Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s chief investment officer, has been pushing this thesis through mid-2026, contending that whether Bitcoin settles at $40,000 or $60,000 in a downturn matters far less than its potential to reach $100K, $200K, or even $1 million over the long term.

The floor is lava, but it keeps moving up

Bitwise’s on-chain analysis earlier this year identified a realized price around $54K and a true market mean of approximately $79K. Realized price is the average cost basis of all Bitcoin holders, and it acts as a psychological and financial floor because most holders are unlikely to sell below what they paid.

Bottom projections from other major firms reinforce this picture. Galaxy and Standard Chartered have placed their estimates for Bitcoin’s potential trough somewhere between $43,000 and $59,000.

Institutions are waiting with open wallets

One of the more interesting elements of Hougan’s commentary came in early July 2026, when he described the selloff in STRC as a signal that the market was approaching a bottom. His read was that institutional players were positioned and ready to buy in at these levels.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have changed the plumbing of how traditional capital flows into the asset. Pension funds, endowments, and wealth managers now have regulatory-compliant vehicles to gain exposure without touching an exchange or managing private keys.

Hougan has explicitly linked the rising floor to reduced volatility driven by institutional participation.

Regulation as a price stabilizer

The other pillar of Bitwise’s thesis rests on regulatory clarity, specifically the proposed Clarity Act. Hougan has connected potential floor stabilization directly to these regulatory advancements, arguing that clearer rules attract capital that’s currently sitting on the sidelines.

What this means for investors

With bottom projections clustered in the $43K to $59K range and upside targets stretching into six and seven figures, the asymmetry looks attractive on paper.

That said, there are real risks to this thesis. Regulatory progress isn’t guaranteed. The Clarity Act could stall, get watered down, or never pass at all. And on-chain support levels, while useful as guidelines, aren’t ironclad. Bitcoin has violated its realized price in previous cycles, however briefly.