Central Bank of Turkey survey: CPI expected to reach 29.21% by the end of 2026, GDP growth rate at 3.1%, and the lira forecasted to weaken to 51.55

智通财经2026/07/20 07:11

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(1) Inflation: The survey forecasts Turkey's Consumer Price Index (CPI) at the end of 2026 to be 29.21% (previous forecast: 29.14%), with CPI over the next 12 months expected at 23.95% (previous forecast: 23.81%). (2) Economic growth and external balance: The GDP growth rate at the end of 2026 is projected at 3.1% (previous forecast: 3.2%); the current account deficit for the same period is expected to be $49.3 billion (previous prediction: $49.2 billion). (3) Exchange rate and interest rate: The USD/TRY exchange rate is expected to be 51.5537 at year-end (previously 51.4692), indicating a mild depreciation trend; the repo rate forecast for the next 12 months has been lowered from 30.14% to 29.44%. The rate expected at the first Monetary Policy Committee meeting is 37.00%, and 36.55% at the second meeting. After 24 months, the rate is forecast to drop to 21.76% (previous forecast: 22.14%).

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