The probability of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait being closed before the end of August has risen to 21% on Polymarket.

According to Odaily, on the Polymarket prediction platform, the probability of the closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait before August 31 has risen to 21%, up from a low of 11% early Monday; the probability of closure before September 30 once rose to 26%.

Ansar Allah, the Houthi armed group in Yemen, has announced a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, stating that the operation is based on the principle of "an eye for an eye" and aims to disrupt Saudi crude oil export flows. The relevant channel involves the transportation of more than 4.5 million barrels of crude oil.

The outcome of this prediction contract is determined based on maritime trade flow data published by PortWatch, the IMF platform. If the 7-day moving average of ships arriving at the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is less than or equal to 10 on any date from the market's creation to the contract's expiry date, the contract will settle as "Yes".