Bitget UEX Daily ｜Trump Says US-Iran Negotiation Window Is Limited; Apple Overtakes Nvidia to Reclaim World’s Largest Market Cap; US Stocks Mixed as Storage and Optical Communications Come Under Pressure (July 28, 2026)

I. Hot News Highlights

Federal Reserve Developments

Trump Presses for Lower Rates; Citadel Securities Warns of Possible Surprise Hike

• Trump said Fed Chair Warsh is excellent but rates should be lower, stating that the United States should have the lowest rates in the world and that costs are falling rapidly.
• Citadel Securities expects a possible 25 bp rate hike this week to reinforce the Fed’s anti-inflation credibility and end excessive reliance on forward guidance.
• Morgan Stanley data shows investors have increased dollar long positions ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Market Impact: Trump’s call for rate cuts coexists with hawkish hike warnings, heightening policy uncertainty, supporting the dollar in the near term and pressuring valuations of risk assets.

International Commodities

US-Iran Pause Drives Sharp Oil Price Decline

• Trump decided to pause strikes on Iran to give negotiations another chance, while emphasizing that if diplomacy fails, he may order a return to strong military action, noting the window is “not long.”
• Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu arrived in the United States and will meet Trump on the 28th, planning to present intelligence showing Iran is still advancing nuclear facilities and missile reconstruction.

Market Impact: Expectations of geopolitical de-escalation rapidly eroded the previous risk premium. Crude oil fell sharply, easing inflation concerns, though the risk of negotiation breakdown remains and market sentiment stays sensitive.

Macroeconomic Policy

Tariff Impact Limited; AI Review Framework Nears; CME Launches Single-Stock Futures

• The USTR stated that the new Section 301 tariffs will not create additional economic impact beyond the current range and will cover the vast majority of imports.
• The Trump administration is close to finalizing a voluntary AI review framework requiring frontier models to be submitted to the government before public release, with an August 1 deadline.
• CME launched cash-settled single-stock futures on 55 US stocks plus micro contracts, supporting 23-hour trading (including SpaceX, Micron, etc.).

Market Impact: Policy clarity reduces trade uncertainty. The AI framework may affect model release timing, while single-stock futures expand leveraged trading windows.

II. Market Recap

Commodities FX Performance (Real-time Update)

• Spot Gold: ~$4,052/oz, -0.61%
• Spot Silver: ~$57.2/oz, -2.04%
• WTI Crude: ~$81.6/bbl, -1.15%
• Brent Crude: ~$81.35/bbl, +0.78%
• US Dollar Index (DXY): ~101.47, -0.05%

Driver Analysis: The pause in US-Iran strikes and renewed negotiation hopes quickly compressed the oil risk premium. Both WTI and Brent declined significantly, easing inflation concerns and supporting risk assets. Gold and silver came under mild pressure amid falling oil prices and a relatively firm dollar, with safe-haven demand cooling. The linkage is clear: geopolitical de-escalation → lower oil prices → cooler inflation expectations → renewed discussion of Fed policy space. However, Trump’s “limited window” comments keep markets cautious, and near-term commodity volatility will continue to track negotiation progress.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: ~$63,232, -2.82%
• ETH: ~$1,875, -3.34%
• Total Crypto Market Cap: ~$2.27 trillion, -1.5%
• Liquidations (24h): Total ~$677 million, of which longs ~$533 million
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Around the current price (~$63,162), long/short liquidation pressure is relatively light. Heavy high-leverage short liquidation clusters sit in the $64,400–$66,500 zone. A continued rise could trigger cascading short liquidations and amplify upside momentum. Cumulative long leverage below is notably smaller than short leverage above (~$190 million vs ~$620 million), indicating higher short-side risk concentration and greater probability of squeeze volatility on upside breaks than on downside moves.

• Spot ETF Flows: BTC spot ETFs have shown mixed recent flows. Last Friday saw a single-day net outflow of $240 million; current 24h dynamic net outflow is about $2.8 million.

Driver Analysis: Falling oil prices and geopolitical de-escalation lifted risk appetite, allowing crypto to stabilize overall. ETH’s relative strength points to rotation into higher-beta assets. Liquidations were dominated by shorts, reflecting short covering support. ETF flows remain volatile, showing continued institutional caution. At the macro level, the approaching FOMC meeting and Trump’s rate-cut pressure form a key tension. Technically, BTC is holding key support. Near-term bias is range-bound to mildly constructive, with focus on negotiation progress and FOMC outcomes for liquidity impact.

US Equity Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at 52,210 (+0.51%), supported by lower oil prices boosting blue chips
• SP 500: Closed at 7,413 (+0.02%), barely ending a multi-session losing streak
• Nasdaq: Closed at 24,932 (-0.18%), weighed by semiconductor weakness

Tech Giants Performance

• NVDA: ~$196.5, -4.99%
• AAPL: ~$336.9, +1.17%
• MSFT: ~$389, +1.94%
• GOOGL: ~$326.6, +2.13%
• AMZN: ~$231.4, -0.31%
• META: ~$593.9, -0.22%
• TSLA: ~$309.2, -1.22%

Performance Summary Driver Analysis: Tech showed clear internal divergence. Apple’s steady performance allowed it to overtake Nvidia as the world’s largest company by market cap, while Microsoft and Google also strengthened. Nvidia fell sharply on concerns over AI infrastructure costs and competition, dragging the Nasdaq. AI application software names (Shopify, Palantir, etc.) remained strong, indicating preference for monetization over pure hardware narratives. The overall tone was supported by oil price relief, but semiconductor and storage weakness reflected reassessment of capital spending and supply-demand dynamics. Drivers are highly stock-specific rather than uniform.

Sector Moves

Storage Sector – Sharp Decline

• Representative stocks: SanDisk down over 11%, SK Hynix ADR down over 7%, Western Digital and Seagate down over 4%
• Drivers: Cooling storage demand and price expectations, compounded by broader chip selling pressure.

AI Application Software – Continued Strength

• Representative stocks: Shopify up over 11%, Palantir up 7%, ServiceNow and Adobe up over 5%
• Drivers: Preference for software monetization capability and clearer earnings visibility.

Optical Communications – Leading Declines

• Representative stocks: Lumentum down nearly 7%, Coherent down over 4%
• Drivers: Followed broader tech selling and capital expenditure concerns.

III. In-Depth US Stock Analysis

1. Shopify (SHOP) – Surged 11.54%, Leading AI Application Software

Event Overview: Shopify rose 11.54% to $126.88, the largest gainer among major tech names. AI application software advanced broadly, with Shopify moving in tandem with Palantir, ServiceNow, and Adobe, in clear contrast to chips and storage. Market Interpretation: Capital is rotating from the high-investment, uncertain-return AI infrastructure narrative toward software and platforms with clearer commercialization and earnings visibility. As a leading e-commerce infrastructure provider, Shopify benefits from enterprise digitalization and AI tool integration. Markets are assigning a significantly higher certainty premium to it than to pure compute plays. This rotation reflects investors’ preference for cash-flow delivery in a high-valuation environment. Investment Implication: Application-layer software is receiving a near-term premium, but high valuations raise the bar for upcoming earnings; focus on whether order and profit growth can match current expectations.

2. SanDisk (SNDK) – Plunged 11.02%, Dragging Storage Sector

Event Overview: SanDisk fell 11.02% to $1,278.23, leading the storage sell-off. Western Digital, Seagate, and SK Hynix ADR (down over 7%) also declined sharply. Market Interpretation: After strong first-half gains driven by AI server demand expectations, storage stocks entered a clear phase of profit-taking and expectation reset. Markets are questioning whether AI-driven storage demand can sustain previously elevated prices and valuations in the near term, with supply-demand rebalancing becoming a focus. The contrast with strong software names shows capital retreating from long-duration demand narratives toward more cautious pricing. Investment Implication: Storage cycle volatility has intensified and is currently sentiment-driven. Investors should monitor inventory, pricing, and major customer capex guidance rather than assume linear AI demand growth.

3. Palantir (PLTR) – Rose ~7%, Extending AI Software Strength

Event Overview: Palantir gained 7% to $131.53, helping drive the AI application software group higher alongside Shopify and others. Market Interpretation: Progress in commercial and government AI deployments is being rewarded. Markets prefer paying for already-deployed AI solutions rather than remaining solely at the infrastructure build-out stage. Palantir’s commercialization path and contract visibility allowed it to outperform amid chip weakness, highlighting the software-hardware divergence. Investment Implication: AI software monetization logic is being reinforced, but valuations remain elevated. Continued monitoring of large-customer order conversion and margin improvement is warranted.

4. AMD (AMD) – Fell 5.17%, Following Chip Sector Weakness

Event Overview: AMD declined 5.17% to $494.95, joining Nvidia in weighing on semiconductors and the Nasdaq. Market Interpretation: Uncertainty around the return cycle of AI infrastructure spending is being re-priced. Optimistic assumptions about future hyperscaler capex growth have moderated. As a key GPU and data-center chip participant, AMD was directly affected. The structural split between hardware pressure and software strength became more pronounced. Investment Implication: The long-term AI compute demand thesis remains intact, but near-term valuation and spending pace require stricter validation. Volatility may stay higher than that of application software names.

5. Lumentum (LITE) – Fell Nearly 7%, Leading Optical Communications Lower

Event Overview: Lumentum dropped approximately 6.7–7%, with the optical communications sector weak overall and Coherent also down over 4%. Market Interpretation: Optical modules and high-speed interconnect demand are highly leveraged to AI data-center capital spending. When markets grow cautious on the pace of AI infrastructure investment, optical communications—as a sensitive upstream segment—tends to react first. Its moves resonated with storage and chips, signaling a broader expectation reset across the AI hardware chain. Investment Implication: The sector remains tightly linked to AI infrastructure. Near-term performance is sentiment-driven; focus on subsequent capex guidance visibility from cloud providers and equipment makers.

6. Apple (AAPL) – Reclaims World’s Largest Market Cap

Event Overview: Apple’s market cap rose to approximately $4.95 trillion, surpassing Nvidia’s roughly $4.77 trillion—the first time since April 2025 that Apple has reclaimed the global No. 1 ranking. Shares rose about 1.17% to $336.91. The company reports earnings later this week. Market Interpretation: Amid heightened volatility in the AI narrative, investors are once again assigning a higher premium to companies with robust free cash flow and steady services growth. The Apple–Nvidia market-cap switch essentially reflects a rebalancing from “high growth but high uncertainty” toward “certainty and earnings quality.” Investment Implication: The rotation signals a phase shift in risk appetite. Apple’s upcoming results will be a key test of consumer electronics and services growth resilience.

7. Nvidia (NVDA) – AI Infrastructure Cost Concerns Trigger Sell-Off

Event Overview: Nvidia fell approximately 4.99% to $196.51, with market cap shrinking to roughly $4.77 trillion. The broader AI chip group weakened. Market Interpretation: Markets are raising more questions about the return cycle of massive capital spending, competitive dynamics, and the sustainability of customer outlays. The previously highly priced “long-term AI infrastructure boom” narrative is undergoing a phase of correction. The contrast with Apple reclaiming the top market-cap ranking underscores the preference for more certain assets. Investment Implication: The long-term AI demand thesis remains in place, but valuation and spending pace have entered a stricter scrutiny phase. Near-term volatility may exceed the market average.

8. ASML – Follows Semiconductor Equipment Lower

Event Overview: ASML declined approximately 5.8%, moving in line with semiconductor equipment and chip stocks. Market Interpretation: As the core supplier of advanced lithography equipment, ASML’s order visibility is tightly linked to customer capital spending. When markets grow concerned about the growth rate of AI-related capex, equipment makers often reflect the shift first. Its performance moved in tandem with AMD and Nvidia, reinforcing the signal of pressure across the hardware chain. Investment Implication: Long-term demand from process-node advances and leading-edge manufacturing remains supportive, but near-term results are sensitive to tech-sector sentiment and capex expectations. Close tracking of major customer guidance is warranted.

IV. Market Project Dynamics

1. According to ARK Invest’s website, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest bought 124,543 shares of SpaceX (SPCX) on Monday, valued at approximately $14.14 million, and 27,864 shares of Tesla (TSLA), valued at about $8.62 million.
2. Citadel Securities expects the Fed to raise rates at this week’s meeting—an unexpected move that would enhance Chair Kevin Warsh’s credibility in the fight against inflation. Macro strategy head Frank Flight wrote that a 25 bp hike on Wednesday would reinforce Warsh’s repeated commitment to restoring price stability and signal that policymakers are no longer relying on pre-signaling every policy step. “Markets may once again be underestimating the extent of the Fed’s hawkish shift. A hike this week would decisively end the era of forward guidance while underscoring the Fed’s independence.” Flight argued that acting this week rather than waiting until September would have a greater impact by altering market expectations of how the Fed responds to inflation.
3. SK Hynix (SKHY.O) ADRs fell to a post-listing low on Monday. The stock debuted earlier this month with a $26.5 billion raise, but continuous outflows from high-valuation semiconductor names drove a sharp pullback. It once dropped as much as 10% intraday to $139.01—well below the $149 IPO price—before closing at $143.02.
4. According to Grayscale research data, HYPE ETF inflows are accelerating on an assets-under-management share basis and have outperformed BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP on a relative basis. Grayscale noted that Bitcoin inflows have been the most consistent and stable, Ethereum experienced sharp peaks, Solana and XRP showed healthy early inflows, while HYPE has started stronger at a comparable lifecycle stage than Bitcoin, Solana, and XRP.
5. SpaceX has lost more than $1.2 trillion in market value since its June peak of $225.64—almost equivalent to the market cap of Elon Musk’s other company, Tesla. On Monday it fell for the 13th time in 16 trading days, closing at $113.50, down more than 1%. In the options market, retail investors continue to buy deep out-of-the-money calls betting on a rapid rebound. SpaceX’s first earnings report is due next week, and roughly 911.5 million insider shares (about 20% of total shares) will begin unlocking from August 6. Traders believe the lock-up expiration may not be as severe as feared, but is also unlikely to provide price support.
6. On Monday, Apple overtook Nvidia to become the world’s largest company by market capitalization for the first time since April 2025. Nvidia fell nearly 5%, with market cap dropping to $4.77 trillion, as investors expressed concern over the massive costs of AI infrastructure build-out; the AI chip group weakened overall. Apple rose 1%, reaching a $4.95 trillion market cap. The company reports highly anticipated results after the close on Thursday. Nvidia had held the top spot since taking it from Microsoft in June 2025 and briefly touched a $5 trillion valuation last October. Year-to-date, Nvidia is up only 4%, while Apple is up 24%. Apple has outperformed the broader market by remaining cautious on AI capital spending and preferring to lease compute rather than build infrastructure—an approach investors have rewarded.
7. Bitcoin held near $65,000 on Monday after rising about 4% over the past few days, while Ethereum reached a nearly two-month high even as AI-related tech stocks came under pressure. Analysts say this week’s Fed decision, inflation data, and big-tech earnings will determine whether Bitcoin can break out of its multi-month range or fall back toward June lows. LMAX Group market strategists noted that crypto’s resilience during traditional market volatility is encouraging and supports the view that digital assets are beginning to decouple from traditional risk assets. Technically, Bitcoin needs to clear $67,300 to exit the consolidation range in place since June; Ethereum faces key resistance at $2,000. Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee pointed to the ETH/BTC ratio rising to a three-month high as a bullish signal. However, a senior research analyst at Nansen argued the rebound lacks strong buying support, with declining Bitcoin futures open interest and order-book data pointing to net selling pressure, and still expects a possible move toward the $52,000–$58,000 zone unless conditions improve. The Fed rate decision and core PCE data will be key catalysts this week.

V. Today’s Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

July 28 (Tuesday)

1. US ADP employment change for the week ended July 11
2. Boeing, Corning, Coca-Cola report pre-market
3. ★★★ Bloom Energy, KLA, Seagate Technology, Visa report post-market (focus on AI/storage and payment demand)

July 29 (Wednesday)

1. ★★★★★ Microsoft, Meta report post-market (key focus on AI capex returns, cloud growth, and ad recovery)
2. ★★★★ Qualcomm, Arm, Robinhood report post-market
3. ★★★★★ SK Hynix reports Q2 results (critical validation for AI storage/HBM)

July 30 (Thursday)

1. ★★★★★ Fed rate decision; market expects no change; Chair Warsh holds press conference afterward. Focus on guidance for the future rate path and whether rate hikes could resume in September amid ongoing inflation and tariff uncertainty
2. ★★★★★ US June core PCE price index, Q2 real GDP annualized QoQ preliminary, weekly initial jobless claims
3. ★★★★★ Apple, Amazon report earnings – testing AI commercialization progress
4. ★★★★ Samsung Electronics full Q2 results (storage and AI chips)
5. ★★★ Coinbase, Strategy report post-market

July 31 (Friday)

1. ★★★★ Kioxia reports earnings (final of the Japan-Korea storage trio)
2. US July Chicago PMI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment final

This week’s core US market themes center on the Fed’s rate-decision signals, tariff uncertainty, PCE inflation data, and the AI mega-cap earnings test from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon. Elevated volatility is expected.

Institutional Views

Analysts generally believe the US-Iran strike pause has driven a sharp decline in oil prices, meaningfully easing inflation concerns and providing breathing room for risk assets—benefiting the Dow in particular. However, firms such as Citadel Securities warn that the Fed could deliver a surprise hike this week, and that markets may be underestimating the hawkish shift. Tech divergence has intensified: Apple reclaiming the top market-cap ranking reflects a rising preference for certainty, while Nvidia’s decline highlights doubts about AI infrastructure returns. Crypto stabilized amid oil-price relief, with ETH outperforming BTC on rotation, but volatile ETF flows and the approaching FOMC keep near-term caution elevated. The broad consensus is that geopolitical de-escalation supports near-term sentiment, yet policy and negotiation uncertainty will dominate volatility.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search and verified by humans for publication only. It does not constitute any investment advice. Data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.