British Pound Sterling collects a refund on the Fed hike that never came

The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% at 18:00 GMT on a 9-3 vote, with three voting members preferring an immediate quarter-point increase. Sterling read that as a refund rather than a warning, spiking roughly 40 pips into the 1.3350 area within minutes and printing its best level in two days. Futures pricing carried better than a third of a hike into the meeting, and that premium came out of the Dollar on the headline.

The briefing at 18:30 GMT carries the whole forward question, because this meeting attaches no Summary of Economic Projections and the statement retains the short form that struck forward guidance in June. Three dissents are the hawkish bloc putting itself on the record for the first time under this Chair, and a Chair who reads them as direction of travel takes this move straight back. September already carries roughly three-quarters odds of at least one increase.

GBP/USD 5-minute chart