Global Commodities Roundup: Market Talk

The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1058 ET - The WSJ Dollar Index is flat ahead of a Fed decision that remains unusually uncertain. Goldman Sachs economists expect a hold with at least one dissent for a hike. War-driven energy price volatility clouds the outlook, they say in a note. Markets are pricing about one-in-three odds of a hike today. Goldman says the key question for FX if the Fed holds is how much of the hike pricing is redistributed to upcoming meetings. CME data shows investors already pricing a hike in September. The dollar weakens slightly against the euro and the yen. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1047 ET - Soybean futures on the CBOT are down 1.8% as the weather outlook turns wetter and temperatures moderate in U.S. growing areas. "The eastern half of the Plains and the rest of the Midwest will see beneficial rains through early next week and by the weekend much cooler temperatures will move into the Midwest as well," says the Hightower Report in a note. The USDA recently reported a decrease in the amount of crops in good-or-excellent condition for both soybeans and corn. Soybeans are typically less advanced in maturation at this time of year versus corn, making weather changes increasingly important. Corn falls 1.1%, and wheat is virtually unchanged. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1027 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are holding their ground after four sessions of losses with the August contract set to expire at the close. Power-sector demand from summer heat has been offset by strong production, weak LNG feedgas and above-average storage. While further weakness appears likely into August, prices could rebound in the autumn as lower gas prices encourage coal-to-gas fuel switching, and producers curtail output and delay bringing drilled wells on line, Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Nymex natural gas for August delivery is near flat at $2.663/mmBtu and the September contract is up 0.3% at $2.709/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0945 ET - Lean hog futures on the CME are down 0.4% in early trading as seasonality typically seen in pork prices sets in. "Seasonally, pork prices should begin to decline in the coming days," says Ben Johnson of New Frontier Capital Markets. "We've had a couple disappointing prints in a row now." Average pork cutout prices published by the USDA late yesterday showed a slight drop in carcass cutout prices, falling by 54 cents per hundredweight to $103.91 per cwt. Live cattle futures rise 0.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0856 ET - A surprise attack on U.S. forces by Iran briefly pushed CBOT grain futures higher, but corn and soybeans have since retreated as more rainfall materializes. "It's Central U.S. weather that dominates CBOT grain trading, with a ridge-riding storm forecast to bring needed T-storms to the North Central U.S. starting tomorrow," says AgResource in a note. The firm adds that the rainfall is expected to benefit growing soybean crops more than corn, with corn nearing the end of its pollination phase. CBOT corn falls 0.8% premarket, while soybeans are down 1.1%. Wheat is up 0.4%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0832 ET - Oil futures are back on the rise as the U.S. and Iran resume military strikes following a pause, again dimming hopes for a negotiated solution to the conflict. "Prolonging this war will deepen damage to vital oil facilities, whether in the Gulf states or in Iran, which cannot be reversed through negotiations and could require months or even years to repair," Samer Hasn of XS.com says in a note. That could keep oil prices relatively high for an long period, he adds. "Extreme and unlikely scenarios could become reality as the war's timeframe extends." WTI is up 6.6% at $84.51 a barrel and Brent is 6.9% higher at $89.93. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0606 ET - Crude palm oil ended higher on stronger crude oil prices amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, according to David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Recent robust export performance is also seen as a positive factor in the near term, Ng says. He sees prices of crude palm oil supported above 4,600 ringgit a ton and pegs resistance at 4,750 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery rose 21 ringgit at 4,663 ringgit a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0523 ET - Weir Group's downgrades to consensus estimates prompted investors to temper expectations for 2026 earnings growth, Davy Research analyst Colin Grant says in a note. The outlook hinges largely on the engineering company delivering its expected second-half earnings growth, Grant says. Davy also notes downside risk to 2027 projections, where it currently models EPS expanding 12.5% to 148.5 pence. "In the near term, however, the market may refocus on the strength in the copper price, which remains in a firm uptrend, and has historically had a strong correlation with Weir's share price," he says. Shares are up 6.6% at 2,690 pence. (anthony.orunagoriainoff@dowjones.com)

0406 ET - Glencore is set to post a very strong first-half marketing performance while production is mostly tracking to guidance, Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina writes. The commodities giant expects its traders to post a consensus-beating $3.3 billion in adjusted EBIT. Glencore had guided to the unit's performance normalizing in the second half of the year but there is clearly upside given that energy market dislocations continue, LaFemina writes. The unit's performance will likely drive consensus expectations higher over the remainder of the year and help support further upgrades thereafter, he writes. Shares rise 4.4% to 528.80 pence.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0347 ET - Gold prices tick higher as investors await the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision this week and Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks. "Markets currently assign around a one-in-three probability of a 25 basis-point rate hike, with policymakers balancing softer June inflation against renewed inflationary pressures from higher oil prices," says Soojin Kim, analyst at MUFG. "Although gold has fallen by nearly 25% since the conflict began, the metal has remained supported around the $4,000/oz level by sustained dip-buying." In early European trading, New York gold futures are up 0.2% to $4,045.80 a troy ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0340 ET - Glencore's second-quarter production was in line with expectations while marketing beat views, Barclays analyst Ian Rossouw writes. A strong marketing performance looks set to deliver a first-half Ebitda of around $10 billion, which is 1% ahead of Barclays' prior expectations, he writes. The commodity giant expects marketing to report a first-half adjusted EBIT of around $3.3 billion. This is much stronger than the $2.9 billion Barlcays had expected, he adds. Shares rise 4.4% to 528,80 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

2237 ET - Palm oil rises in early Asian trade, driven by expectations of higher Malaysian exports and lower output, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. Technical analysis suggests CPO futures are undergoing a consolidation phase within a broader uptrend and are expected to trade with a bullish-to-sideways bias in the near term. AmInvestment Bank expects prices to face resistance at 4,683 ringgit a ton and find support at 4,602 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery is higher by 19 ringgit at 4,661 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 29, 2026 12:15 ET (16:15 GMT)