If the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged in September, it may trigger a sharp surge in US Treasury yields.

Jinse Finance reported that on July 30, analyst Edward Harrison wrote that although current market pricing indicates a nearly two-thirds probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September, the Fed could once again unexpectedly choose to stand pat. If this scenario occurs, it would further push up the U.S. Treasury yield curve, causing severe market volatility. The article analyzed that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh hinted at the post-meeting press conference in July that the recent spontaneous tightening of financial market conditions has, to some extent, replaced the need for the Fed to take action in July. Based on this logic, the market is likely to face the same game of speculation in September. Data shows that although the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index for June was lower than expected, the real yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury at one point soared to 2.98% on Thursday. In addition, upcoming economic data may also provide the Fed with a reason to stay on the sidelines. On the one hand, the core PCE figure is below market expectations; on the other hand, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is recalculating the method for measuring price increases. Critics argue this method is flawed, and the adjustments may artificially reduce inflationary pressures on paper.