Huatai Futures: US economic data below expectations, gold fluctuates with a bullish bias

　　Source: Huatai Futures

　　Author: Shi Cheng

　　Market Analysis

　　On the geopolitical front, the US Central Command issued a statement that on the evening of the 29th US Eastern Time, the US military conducted large-scale strikes on Iran in response to Iran’s attempt to attack US troops in the Middle East the previous day. On July 30, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran issued a statement saying that, in response to the US military strikes, Iran attacked US military bases located in Kuwait and Jordan. In terms of economic data, the initial value of the US Q2 GDP grew by an annualized rate of 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, lower than the first quarter's 2.1% and below market expectations. Consumer spending and investment remained strong, but overall data was dragged down by a decline in net exports. The US core PCE price index for June rose by 0.1% month-on-month, and 3.3% year-on-year, both moderating from May. The overall PCE price index for June decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, turning negative for the first time since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020.

　　Futures Market and Trading Volume:

　　On 2026-07-30, the main SHFE gold contract opened at 880.26 RMB/gram and closed at 881.40 RMB/gram, a change of -0.32% from the previous close. The day's trading volume was 41,087 lots, and open interest was 129,725 lots. In the previous night session, the main SHFE gold contract opened at 888.26 RMB/gram and closed at 894.70 RMB/gram, an increase of 1.51% from the previous afternoon’s close.

　　On 2026-07-30, the main SHFE silver contract opened at 14,060.00 RMB/kg and closed at 14,032.00 RMB/kg, a change of -1.65% from the previous close. The day's trading volume was 984,527 lots, and open interest was 282,478 lots. In the previous night session, the main SHFE silver contract opened at 14,200 RMB/kg and closed at 14,402 RMB/kg, up 2.64% from the previous afternoon’s close.

　　US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring:

　　On 2026-07-30, the US 10-year treasury yield closed at 4.67%, a change of 0.06% over the prior trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.45%, an increase of 0.10% from the previous trading day.

　　SHFE Gold & Silver Open Interest and Trading Volume Changes:

　　On 2026-07-30, for the Au2610 contract, long positions decreased by 5,026 lots and short positions decreased by 3,948 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of SHFE gold contracts was 377,151 lots, up 37.46% from the preceding trading day. On the silver side, for the Ag2610 contract, long positions decreased by 4,836 lots and short positions decreased by 4,092 lots. The total trading volume of the contract was 1,246,080 lots, a 32.72% increase from the previous day.

　　Precious Metals ETF Holdings Tracking:

　　For precious metals ETFs, holdings of gold ETF as of yesterday were 1,009.30 tons, up by 0.57 tons compared to the previous day. Silver ETF holdings were 14,939 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day.

　　Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking:

　　Futures-Spot Spread: On 2026-07-30, the domestic premium for gold was -13.87 RMB/gram, and for silver it was 24.01 RMB/kg. Gold-silver price ratio: The main SHFE gold-silver contracts’ price ratio was approximately 62.81, a change of 1.36% from the previous trading day. The international gold-silver ratio was 70.24, down by 0.54% from the prior trading day.

　　Fundamentals:

　　Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market monitoring data for the previous trading day (2026-07-30) showed a gold trading volume of 39,682 kg, an increase of 58.53% from the prior trading day. The silver trading volume was 284,998 kg, an increase of 15.00%. Gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg and silver delivery volume was 11,880 kg.

　　Strategy

　　Gold: Cautiously Bullish

　　US economic data came in weaker than expected, and combined with PCE figures indicating inflation is still on a downward channel, the tempering of rate cut expectations has seen a slight recovery in market risk appetite. It is expected that gold prices may trend sideways to slightly stronger in the near term, with the Au2610 contract likely fluctuating between 880 RMB/gram and 910 RMB/gram.

　　Silver: Cautiously Bullish

　　Currently, silver mirrors gold's logic, so its price is also expected to maintain a sideways to moderately bullish trend. The Ag2610 contract may fluctuate between 13,800 RMB/kg and 15,000 RMB/kg.

　　Arbitrage: On Hold

　　Options: On Hold

　　Risks

　　Overseas liquidity risk

　　Continuous exit of speculative positions

　　Investment advisory qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1289

Editor: Zhu Henan