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Saudi Arabia enters technical recession in the second quarter; non-oil sectors prove unexpectedly resilient, but recovery outlook remains constrained by the oil market

Saudi Arabia enters technical recession in the second quarter; non-oil sectors prove unexpectedly resilient, but recovery outlook remains constrained by the oil market

智通财经智通财经2026/07/31 03:11
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  1. The latest report from Capital Economics notes that although Saudi Arabia's economy contracted in the second quarter, the downturn was not as severe as market fears, but the country has officially entered a technical recession.
  2. Data shows that GDP in the quarter fell by about 5% compared to the previous quarter, with a decline of approximately 1% in the first quarter. Notably, oil activities plummeted by over 20%, becoming the main drag on the economy.
  3. Non-oil activities performed better than expected, contracting only slightly by about 0.5%, indicating that economic diversification efforts have partially cushioned the intense fluctuations in the energy sector.
  4. Capital Economics believes the second quarter may have represented the peak impact period of geopolitical conflict on the economy, but warns that if oil exports suffer further disruptions, the recovery path will be uneven.
  5. Market sentiment remains cautious, as investors weigh changes in oil production quotas and external demand. Any new supply-side shocks could delay the economic stabilization window.
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