CME traders show 'little interest' in Solana futures debut, potential ETF likely to have less impact on SOL price, K33 says

CME Solana futures launched to little fanfare on Monday, well below Bitcoin and Ethereum futures debuts at the venue, according to K33.

The launch of CME futures products has been seen as a key stepping stone toward eventual Securities and Exchange Commission spot exchange-traded fund approvals in the U.S. However, the Solana futures secured just $12.3 million in trading volume on day one, with open interest closing at $7.8 million, questioning the institutional appetite for altcoins, K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde and Senior Analyst David Zimmerman noted in a Tuesday report.

In contrast, Bitcoin futures debuted on the CME in December 2017, registering $102.7 million in volume on launch day and $20.9 million in open interest. Ethereum futures generated $31 million on their first day of CME trading in February 2021, with $20 million in OI.

Compared to the bull market climax of December 2017 and the early stage alt season of February 2021, the analysts acknowledged that the introduction of Solana futures came during a comparatively risk-off environment, with no major catalyst moving markets on its launch day. They also noted that adjusting for market cap, the Solana futures debut aligns more closely with prior launches on a relative basis.

However, in absolute terms, the debut was far smaller, and with several altcoin exchange-traded funds seeking approval in the U.S. this year, including Solana, the impact of such a product on underlying asset prices is likely to be softer than observed with the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF launch in January 2024, Lunde and Zimmerman said.