Euro: Range tests with upside bias against US Dollar – ING

ING’s Francesco Pesole keeps a constructive stance on EUR/USD after recent US data, based on a view that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to deliver further tightening. He targets 1.160 in coming weeks, 1.17 in autumn and 1.18 by year‑end, while warning that the lack of clear catalysts and Gulf risks could keep EUR/USD confined to tight ranges and low volatility.

Upside targets but tight trading ranges

"We retain a preference for EUR/USD upside following the latest US data. That view is rooted in our Fed assessment outlined above, though it must be balanced against the risk that renewed escalation in the Gulf could provide fresh support to the dollar."

"Our target for the coming weeks remains 1.1600, followed by 1.1700 in autumn and 1.1800 by year-end. The absence of a clear catalyst, however, may keep EUR/USD range-bound for longer, while vols test recent lows."

"We will be watching closely for another test of 1.1500. Our bias is that buyers would re-emerge there, potentially nudging the dominant trading range higher to 1.1500-1.1600."