'Big Short' Burry Issues Another AI Crash Warning: Nebius is the 'Epitome of Peak Boom'! Increases Short Positions on Micron, Oracle, and Semiconductor ETF

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Michael Burry, known as the "Big Short" for predicting the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, has once again issued a sharp warning about the ongoing AI frenzy. On August 12, Burry disclosed his latest portfolio adjustments via Substack. After Nebius (NBIS.US) saw its share price soar by 34% following its earnings report, he contrarily increased his short position, describing this AI cloud service provider as the "epitome of the market's peak." At the same time, he further expanded his bearish bets on Micron Technology (MU.US), Oracle (ORCL.US), and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX).

Burry's criticism of Nebius is particularly sharp, directly pointing out that this AI cloud infrastructure provider is "exactly the portrait of a market at its top." He described the current pricing structure in the AI infrastructure market as "backwardation"—with short-term compute power prices being twice those of long-term contracts, revealing the brutal reality of how rapidly GPU values are depreciating.

Contrarian Positioning: Doubling Shorts During a 34% Surge

The most notable move in this operation was the increased short position in Nebius. This AI cloud service provider, spun off from Russian internet giant Yandex and headquartered in Amsterdam, published its Q2 2026 earnings on August 12. Driven by explosive demand for AI infrastructure, its quarterly revenue grew 454% year-on-year to $582.3 million, surpassing market expectations. After the earnings release, Nebius shares surged 34% in a single day.

However, this stellar performance did not shake Burry's bearish stance. That day, he announced on Substack that he had added to his Nebius short position at a price of $247 per share.

Burry’s disclosed shorting actions span both individual stocks and industry indices

Nebius: Added to short position at $247 per share;

Micron Technology: Increased short position at $924 per share;

Oracle: Expanded short exposure at $152 per share;

iShares Semiconductor ETF: Increased holdings of put options expiring March 2027, with strikes centered around $400.

Earlier on August 6, Burry first disclosed his short positions on Nebius and Oracle, with Nebius then being shorted at about $212 per share and Oracle at about $145 per share. Doubling down within just one week indicates Burry’s firm bearish view regarding the valuation bubble in AI infrastructure.

As of August 13, Nebius’s short interest had reached as high as 28.8% of its float, making it one of the most heavily shorted AI infrastructure equities in the market. The stock’s year-to-date gain had once surpassed 209%.

Bullish Holdings: Latin American E-commerce and Animal Healthcare as Safe Havens

While going all in on shorting AI, Burry simultaneously increased two long positions:

MercadoLibre (MELI.US): Added at $1,850 per share, saying “No further explanation needed, extremely bullish”;

Zoetis (ZTS.US): Increased holdings at $73.60 per share, with similarly brief and firm remarks.

These two trades illustrate Burry’s investment logic—anticipating a potential burst of the AI bubble, he allocates funds to "safe haven" assets with solid fundamentals and immune to the AI capex cycle. MercadoLibre, as the leading e-commerce and fintech company in Latin America, and Zoetis, the global leader in animal healthcare, both have stable cash flow and clear growth prospects.

Nebius "Backwardation" Warning: Short-Term Compute Premium Is 2x, GPUs Are Depreciating

Burry's bearish thesis on Nebius is based on in-depth analysis of the company’s earnings call, questioning the sustainability of its business model and economic substance.

First, Burry pointed out the "backwardation" structure in AI compute pricing. In its August 12 earnings report, Nebius revealed that its AI compute contracts feature an extreme "short-term premium": Short-term contracts (within 1 year): $40–50 million per megawatt, sometimes higher; Medium-term contracts (1–3 years): $20–25 million per megawatt.

Short-term prices are nearly twice those of mid-term contracts. Burry sharply questioned: "Paying double the price for urgency and convenience? This is extreme urgency."

In commodity markets, this phenomenon—where spot prices are much higher than future prices—is called backwardation, usually indicating that the market expects the value of the commodity to fall rapidly. Burry applied this logic to the AI compute market, noting: "Electricity itself does not depreciate. So, either GPUs are depreciating, or customers are, or more likely, both are."

Next, Burry further criticized Nebius for extending the useful life for server depreciation from 4 to 5 years. He pointed out that Nebius’s contract pricing implied a roughly 50% annual value decay for its compute assets, yet in the financial statements it "slowly spreads out the cost by prolonging depreciation, creating the illusion of immediate profit inflation." He suggested this may be dressing up profits, as the real hardware refresh rate for AI infrastructure is far faster than its book depreciation rate.

In addition, Burry once again warned about enormous off-balance-sheet liabilities in the industry. In a Substack post a week earlier, he wrote: "The fish have already become bloated on off-balance-sheet obligations, backup commitments, and uninitiated lease and purchase promises. They’ve become extremely fat, very large, and vulnerable to being targeted."

Concerns for Oracle: Debt-Fueled AI Infrastructure Gamble

Burry's bearish thesis on Oracle echoes his criticism of Nebius. He previously warned that by underestimating GPU depreciation, Oracle’s earnings may be overstated by 26–27% by 2028.

As he increased his short position in Oracle, the company was already caught in a dual spiral of "layoffs and debt" amid its aggressive AI infrastructure investment strategy—21,000 jobs cut in fiscal year 2026, with debt rising to $129.5 billion. Oracle’s predicament precisely confirms Burry’s core concern: when hardware depreciation outpaces corporate recognition, the gap between reported earnings and economic reality widens dramatically.

Deeper Warning: Nvidia's "$500 Billion Circular Financing"

Burry’s short bets are not isolated actions. He had previously issued a stern warning about Nvidia (NVDA.US) launching a $500 billion AI infrastructure financing platform in collaboration with Wall Street’s six largest financial institutions.

Burry called this mechanism a "Wall Street stunt," fundamentally describing it as using private credit, asset-backed debt, and Nvidia’s own capital to fund Nvidia GPU purchases, forming a closed loop of "money moving from the left pocket to the right." He warned that this highly leveraged system, built on anticipated GPU demand, is replaying the risk patterns seen ahead of the 2008 financial crisis.

He wrote on Substack: "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss."