Yesterday, the market once again moved within a narrow range.
No passionate surges, no dramatic plunges. If you stared at the intraday charts all day, you might have found yourself feeling sleepy.
Yet this “calmness” made many people feel a certain unease.
Because the market is undergoing a subtle “handover of authority” — shifting from “listening to what the Fed says” to “watching what the data shows.”
1. The good news is “no more rate hikes”—but what then?
Over the past week, a series of non-farm payroll reports below expectations, along with moderate CPI and PPI data, finally allowed the market to breathe a sigh of relief: the Damocles sword of rate hikes has been temporarily removed.
This should be a reason for risk assets to celebrate.
Strangely, however, the expected surge didn’t materialize. The comfort brought by inflation data seemed to be quickly offset by another kind of anxiety.
It’s like someone used to being led, suddenly having the leash released—and not knowing where to go.
2. The new chairman’s “new rules”: You must stand on your own
This shift in market focus originates from the Fed's new chairman, Kevin Walsh, and his brand-new policy style.
Unlike his predecessor who liked to release clear policy signals, Walsh prefers that the market not over-interpret every word and phrase from the Fed. He asks investors to return to the most basic principle—focusing on the actual economic fundamentals.
What does this mean?
For example: previously, the market was like a “model student” always trying to get exam hints from the Fed (rate hikes or cuts). Now, this new teacher says: “Don't ask me; read your own textbook. The exam content is the textbook itself (economic data).”
When decision-makers’ words and actions are out of sync, or don’t give clear signals, the market loses its “psychological anchor”. In this situation, everyone has no choice but to closely focus on employment and prices, the two core coordinates.
This means that every future non-farm payroll report, every CPI release, could be like a stone thrown into a lake—stirring up much larger ripples than before.
Because people are no longer guessing “what will the Fed think,” but instead making trading decisions directly based on the data itself.
3. Cryptocurrency confusion: Awaiting the next breakthrough
This macro-level uncertainty has also spilled over into the cryptocurrency market.
The current market structure shows price action repeatedly tugging within a weak range. It's like a swimmer struggling in deep water, needing to find a clear leverage point to reach the shore, but until then, only drifting with the current.
4. Today's perspective: The tug-of-war between pressure and support
From a purely technical standpoint, the 4-hour chart structure still suggests a weak consolidation.
If we draw a line across the recent trading range, the accumulated resistance area above is roughly at 1919; while the short-term support platform, tested multiple times below, is located around 1853.
Before a clear direction emerges, the market will most likely continue to wear down the patience of both bulls and bears within this range.
5. Two scenarios—be prepared for both
When facing this kind of “leaderless” market volatility, the biggest mistake is to chase up or panic sell. A more rational approach is to prepare for both possibilities around key levels:
Scenario 1: Rebound meets resistance. If the price keeps testing upwards within the range, but struggles near the resistance area (around 1919) and lacks momentum to break higher, this weak rebound could be a good moment to observe potential overhead pressure.
Scenario 2: Support fails. If a worse outcome occurs and the 4-hour or 1-hour candles clearly close below the key support (1853), it means the bottom of the short-term consolidation has been broken, and the market may start searching for a deeper buffer zone below.
