Russia's oil and gas fiscal revenue rebounds in July, but sustainability remains in question

(1) Tax revenues from oil and natural gas once accounted for half of the Russian Federation’s budget income. Although their proportion has declined substantially, they still hold an important position. (2) The latest data shows that oil and gas tax revenues saw a significant rebound in July, but this recovery may be difficult to sustain, with the next notable growth possibly not occurring until October. (3) From the perspective of tax structure, the monthly rebound in July was supported by multiple temporary factors, including a phase of rising oil prices and the impact of certain tax base settlement cycles. These factors may not recur in the coming months. (4) This volatility also reflects the continuing dependence of Russia’s finances on oil and gas revenues, with budget stability remaining highly vulnerable to fluctuations in international energy prices and adjustments in export flows.