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The US dollar weakens and US Treasury yields fall, leading to a rebound in gold prices

The US dollar weakens and US Treasury yields fall, leading to a rebound in gold prices

智通财经智通财经2026/08/19 11:26
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  1. Driven by a weaker US dollar and a pullback in global bond yields from multi-decade highs, gold prices rebounded on Wednesday. The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve meeting minutes to gauge the future direction of interest rates, while inflation risks persist.
  2. Spot gold rose 0.8% to $4,370.19 per ounce; US gold futures edged up 0.1% to $4,425.40 per ounce. On Tuesday, gold prices had plunged nearly 2% as inflation concerns pushed long-term borrowing costs in the US, Germany, and Japan to multi-decade highs.
  3. The pace of bond selling has slowed, causing the dollar to weaken, which in turn has enhanced the appeal of gold, a non-yielding precious metal.
  4. Institutional analysts noted that in the short term, geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve policy directions are counterbalancing each other, keeping gold prices volatile. However, as inflationary pressures ease and the likelihood of the Fed keeping rates unchanged increases, the macro environment is gradually turning favorable for gold. Gold prices are expected to break above $4,500, escaping the bear market range.
  5. The FOMC July meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 AM tomorrow. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now place a 67% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in September. After several weaker US economic data releases, market expectations for further rate hikes have cooled.
  6. On the geopolitical front, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, with oil prices hitting a three-week high on Wednesday. The US stated that it has not held negotiations with Iran and that the strait remains open to navigation, a statement that contradicts Iran's claim of a closure.
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