WTI remains above $83.50 as Iran fires missiles following US strikes

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declines after opening at a bullish gap, remaining in positive territory and trading around $83.60 per barrel during the Asian hours on Monday. Crude oil prices surged as Iran launched a coordinated barrage of ballistic and anti-ship cruise missiles across multiple locations, including Tehran, Lorestan, Karaj, Khorramabad, and Shiraz. The strikes, targeting positions toward the Strait of Hormuz, came in direct response to a vow by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to avenge a Sunday United States (US) strike on Iranian launchers at Larak Island.

The preceding US strike marked the first direct attack on Iranian military positions in over a month, explicitly targeting rocket sites prepared to lay mines in the strategic waterway. While American forces reported closely monitoring the Strait to ensure the uninterrupted flow of global trade, Washington's broader strategy had recently favored economic sanctions over direct military actions to compel Tehran back to the negotiating table.

Despite the recent escalation, diplomatic channels have not completely closed. An Iranian official noted that resuming talks with the US remains possible following constructive dialogue mediated by Qatar. Meanwhile, global energy markets continue to adjust, as an estimated 6 to 8 million barrels of crude oil still pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily even without a formal peace agreement between the two nations.

Crude upside seen capped as Persian Gulf exports recover

Brown Brothers Harriman cautions that, despite recent strength in Brent, “upside pressure on crude oil prices appears limited.” The firm highlights Goldman Sachs estimates that “oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels as more vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz,” suggesting that improving regional supply dynamics are helping to contain further gains.