Swiss Franc gains as US Dollar loses post-Jackson Hole momentum

USD/CHF trades with a downside bias on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to gain traction despite rising Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike expectations and Middle East tensions. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8080, down roughly 0.15% on the day.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.41, easing from last week’s high of 99.72.

The Greenback climbed to its highest level in more than a week on Friday following hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Strategists at Scotiabank note that Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole appearance to “correct the impression of evasiveness and opacity” that had characterized his remarks following the July FOMC. In their view, he “effectively removed ambiguity around the Fed’s inflation target” and delivered a clear warning that unless inflation makes progress towards the 2% objective “with speed.”

Meanwhile, renewed hostilities between the United States (US) and Iran are keeping Oil prices elevated, which could make it harder for inflation to return to the Fed’s 2% target and strengthen the case for tighter monetary policy.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in around a 65% chance of a rate hike next month. This week’s US ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) surveys and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report could influence expectations for the Fed’s September decision.

On the Swiss side, Reuters reported on Monday that a Swiss Bankers Association survey showed all participating bankers expect the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0% for the rest of 2026. Around 60% also expect the central bank to leave rates unchanged throughout 2027.

Looking ahead, Swiss Retail Sales data are due on Tuesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures on Thursday.