Sberbank forecasts Russian regulated crypto trading could hit $87 billion by 2029

Regulated trading begins with conservative estimates

Popov presented these figures prior to the Eastern Economic Forum, describing the estimates as conservative. Sberbank relied on data from the Ministry of Finance, which observed that crypto transactions within Russia amount to around 50 billion rubles daily, totaling approximately 18 trillion rubles annually.

SberCIB Investment Research, a division within Sberbank specializing in market analysis, projected that about 20% of this total—equivalent to 3.5 to 4 trillion rubles—could initially transition to regulated platforms once the appropriate legal framework is in place.

Sberbank, referencing Finance Ministry statistics, indicated that only a fraction of Russia’s existing crypto transaction volume is likely to enter the official market soon after new regulations take effect.

Most current crypto trading activity in Russia is expected to remain outside formally regulated exchanges in the near term, given patterns of behavior and the nature of the transition process.

Market growth potential and regulatory timeline

Sberbank believes that Russia’s regulated crypto market will expand in the coming years as domestic infrastructure matures. Popov stated that annual regulated trading volumes may reach between 4.75 and 5.25 trillion rubles by 2028, rising further to about 7.5 trillion rubles ($87.06 billion) by 2029.

This growth projection signals a gradual migration of crypto activity from unofficial channels toward licensed financial institutions.

Russia’s legal framework for crypto exchanges is set to take effect on September 1. The law gives professional market participants until July 1, 2027, to obtain the necessary licenses. As a result, full-scale adoption of regulated crypto trading is unlikely until after this transition deadline, keeping the initial volume modest by comparison.

The regulatory structure is designed to encourage a staged rollout, potentially reducing risks for both investors and the wider financial system.

Mini dictionary: Sberbank – Russia’s largest state-owned financial institution, actively involved in digital asset market development, banking, and investment services.

Retail restrictions and asset limitations

Population-wide adoption will be influenced by limitations on retail investment. Reports indicate that non-qualified investors are restricted to a maximum investment of 300,000 rubles, approximately $3,800, in crypto per year, provided they complete a financial risk-awareness test. Qualified investors have higher thresholds, but both groups will remain bound by regulatory limits.

Another factor shaping the market’s early phase is the list of approved digital assets. Currently, only Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tether’s USDT are sanctioned for trading on Russian-regulated exchanges. Many other cryptocurrencies remain outside the legal perimeter for now.

This may encourage some investors to continue using unlicensed exchanges to access a wider selection of digital assets, limiting the initial share of total crypto activity conducted on regulated platforms.

Access to only Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT through official exchanges could drive demand for alternative assets elsewhere, affecting the pace at which overall activity shifts into regulated channels.

While total crypto activity in Russia could reach 18 trillion rubles per year, Sberbank anticipates that only a modest fraction will move to the regulated sector during the first phase after legalization.

For banks, brokers, and regulated exchanges, the introduction of a legal framework for crypto trading presents significant business opportunities alongside increased state oversight. For investors, the current framework does not equate to unrestricted trading rights.

Future market expansion depends on how licensing procedures evolve, investor demand develops, regulations are updated, and whether authorities choose to broaden the list of approved digital assets. Based on current forecasts, Russia’s regulated crypto market could grow to $87 billion a year by 2029 if these elements progress as expected.