Reistad Energy: It may take decades for Venezuela's crude oil production to recover to historical highs

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智通财经2026/09/01 00:01

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Protocol Background and Current Output: Trump announced that the US will partner with private enterprises to obtain the rights to exploit Venezuela's 65 billion barrels of oil reserves. The US side will control 55% of the joint venture's output and acquire crude oil at cost price to replenish the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Venezuela's current daily crude oil output is about 1 million barrels, only one-third of the peak output in the 1990s.
Short-term Output Forecast: Reconsult Energy predicts that in the initial phase, the new output will come from existing wells, with daily output gradually increasing from about 157,000 barrels in 2027 to 680,000 barrels in 2030. By the early to mid-2030s, the daily output of old oil fields will reach 740,000 barrels.
Long-term Prospects: A new round of exploration in the Orinoco Oil Belt is expected to achieve "significant" output around 2035, with daily production reaching 840,000 barrels in 2040 and approaching 2 million barrels by 2050. However, even by 2050, production will not have recovered to the historical peak of over 3 million barrels, indicating it will still take decades to return to historical levels.

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Reistad Energy: It may take decades for Venezuela's crude oil production to recover to historical highs

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