Rebounding to $4,400, international gold prices rebound strongly

　　On September 3, 2026, after several days of adjustment, the international gold price rebounded sharply. Spot gold surged by nearly 1% during the day, once again breaking above $4,400 per ounce. New York gold futures also strengthened, reaching as high as $4,456.9 per ounce, with an intraday gain of nearly 1%.

　　On the news side, the U.S. ADP private payrolls for August, released in early September, increased by 38,000, far below market expectations of 47,000, marking the lowest level since January this year. The previous value was revised up to 46,000. The wage growth for job changers dropped to 7.3%. Together with previously published data on PMI and job vacancies, all weaker than expected, this may indicate that the Federal Reserve's tightening policy is beginning to hurt the real economy, further cooling interest rate hike expectations. As a result, the U.S. dollar index recorded its largest recent intraday decline, directly driving the rebound in gold prices.

　　Guotai Haitong Securities believes that in the context of a new wave of de-dollarization narratives, gold still has resilience in the market going forward, as evidenced by the recent steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Coupled with the risks of a new fiscal year budget standoff in the U.S. from September to October, attention can be paid to how rising fiscal anxieties may further catalyze gold prices. After nearly two months of narrow fluctuations, gold prices returned to an upward channel in August. Weaker U.S. employment data, cooling market expectations for more Federal Reserve tightening, a weaker dollar, and continuous central bank gold purchases together form a supportive base, among which central bank buying continues to provide mid- to long-term bottom support for gold prices.

Editor: Zhu Henan