EUR/USD Price Forecast: Turns sticky to 20-day EMA

The Euro (EUR) trades slightly higher against the US Dollar (USD) at around 1.1600 during the early European trading session on Thursday. The major currency pair edges higher, but is broadly sideways, with investors awaiting the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which will be published on Friday.

Investors will closely track the US NFP report to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy expectations.

According to TD Securities, the upcoming US payrolls release could trigger an uneven response in rates markets. Strategists warn that a "firm NFP may increase hike fears, but inflation keeps markets nervous and the reaction asymmetric," with investors reluctant to fully price in a more aggressive Fed path until they see the next CPI print. At the same time, TD Securities argue that "a modestly softer payroll print would allow the market to lower the pricing for a September rate hike," underscoring their view that downside surprises in employment data are more likely to be reflected in near-term policy expectations than upside ones.

Though the Euro is higher against the US Dollar, it is underperforming against its other peers despite financial markets remaining increasingly confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) will hike policy rates this month.

On Wednesday, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel, an outspoken hawk, said that markets see over a 95% chance of a September rate hike.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1598. The pair holds just above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1594, which suggests a mildly bullish near-term bias as price defends this dynamic support zone. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 53.23 sits in neutral territory with a slight positive tilt, hinting that upside momentum is constructive but not overstretched after the recent retreat from overbought readings seen above 70.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the 20-period EMA at 1.1594, where a daily close below would weaken the current constructive tone and expose deeper corrective pressure. On the upside, the 1.1687-1.1714 range will act as a key supply zone for the pair.