Institutions predict gold price to reach $4,929 by the end of the year and $5,296 next year

Huitong Finance, September 3 —— Christopher Louney, Global Head of Commodities Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, stated that the recent movement in gold shows that concerns about geopolitical instability, de-dollarization, and dollar depreciation are returning, and that gold is preparing to move back above $5,000 per ounce. He maintains his forecast from last December, believing the drivers for gold are only paused, not gone, and that for the remainder of the year, gold should hover between $4,500 and $5,000 per ounce, with a year-end inclination towards $4,929/oz and a preference for $5,296/oz in 2027.

The recent price movement in gold has proven that geopolitical instability, global de-dollarization, and worries over the US dollar’s depreciation are returning to the market forefront. Christopher Louney, Global Head of Commodities Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, stated that precious metals are now ready to revisit the upward path above $5,000 per ounce.

Sticking to Early-Year Forecast: Drivers Paused, Not Gone

In his latest commodities analysis, Louney wrote: "Throughout this year, we have remained consistent, upholding our forecast released last December, and with good reason. We have consistently emphasized that, while gold’s underlying drivers may have paused temporarily, they remain intact. Despite ETP holdings posting losses for over a whole quarter, we still believe allocations driven by uncertainty, de-dollarization, and depreciation concerns are on the horizon. These flows will ultimately return and push gold prices higher, as already supported by gold’s rebound in early August, current pricing, and inflow patterns."

Clear Target Range: $4,929 by Year-End, $5,296 in 2027

Louney stated: "We continue to believe that for most of the remainder of this year, gold should hover in the $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce range; this view is unchanged, and our confidence is high. We now specifically emphasize the mid-to-high scenarios for gold prices in Q3, Q4 and for the full year. By year-end, we lean towards the high scenario for 2026, namely $4,929 per ounce; likewise, in 2027, we prefer the $5,296 per ounce high point."

He added: "In any case, our mid-to-high scenario range remains the most likely price band within our forecast."

Lessons from 2025: Uncertainty Leads to Underallocation by Investors

In the December release of RBC’s 2026 gold outlook, Louney stated: "Against the backdrop of uncertainty, gold has proven itself throughout the year. With uncertainty unresolved, we believe gold’s strategic rationale points toward a path of least resistance—sideways to higher."

At that time, he wrote: "If there’s any key lesson 2025 should offer for 2026, it’s that: although uncertainty may arise in many forms, persistent ambiguity regarding tariffs, geopolitics, conflict, politics, government shutdowns, and legislation has left investors feeling under-allocated to gold. Combined with gold’s strong price performance and low correlation, we believe gold is now more widely accepted as a strategic portfolio component."

Central Banks Still a Pillar: The Narrative Itself Opens Doors for Investors

RBC also expects central banks to continue serving as a solid pillar of gold demand through 2026.

Louney said: "Beyond just volume, the ongoing narrative of large-scale central bank gold purchases gives broader investors a larger permission structure to keep allocating to gold." In other words, ongoing central bank buying not only directly constitutes demand, but also sends a clear market signal that "gold is worth allocating to," opening the door for other capital to enter.

Conclusion

From holding steady during the "ETP holdings losses for over a quarter" phase to now calling for targets of "$4,929 by year-end, $5,296 next year," RBC’s stance remains consistent: the drivers for gold have only been paused—never disappeared. The return of geopolitical conflict, de-dollarization, and worry over debt and dollar devaluation are prompting capital to flow back into this renewed narrative. Meanwhile, sustained central bank buying provides the strongest anchor for this round of price movement.

For gold, $5,000 may not be the end, but rather the starting point for this round of uncertainty risk premium repricing.


Spot gold daily chart Source: Yihuitong

GMT+8, September 3, 13:58 Spot Gold Price: $4,431.56 per ounce