August US Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Rise by 55,000, Unemployment Rate Seen Remaining at 4.1%

02:52 PM EDT, 09/03/2026 (MT Newswires) -- US nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 55,000 in August after a 23,000-jobs decline in July, based on a survey compiled by Bloomberg, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1% in July. The August employment report is due to be released at 8:30 am ET Friday. Layoffs intentions rose in August after falling in July, according to a Challenger, Gray and Christmas report, with the consumer products sector the largest contributor to the total and restructuring the most cited reason. The BLS's private payrolls count, which excludes government payrolls, is expected to increase by 50,000 in August after a jobs gain of 30,000 in July. ADP reported that its measure of private payrolls rose by 38,000 jobs in August, led again by the education and health services and leisure and hospitality sectors. Initial were lower in the mid-August employment survey week compared with mid-July survey week, while insured claims were higher. The National Federation of Independent Businesses reported that 35% of small business owners continued to have problems filling current positions in August, down from 36% in July. Job openings rose in July while hiring decreased, according to the BLS's JOLTS report. On the consumer side, the percentage of respondents saying that jobs were "plentiful" in the Conference Board's August consumer confidence survey rose by 2.6 percentage points to 27.0% while those saying jobs were "hard to get" decreased by 2.2 percentage point to 19.5%, widening the gap between the two measures. Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% in August after a 0.1% gain, while the year-over-year growth rate is expected to slow to 3.1% from 3.2%. The average workweek is expected to remain at 34.3 hours.