U.S. AI capital makes a high-stakes bet, wagering on the fate of the dollar

The United States is mobilizing capital on an unprecedented scale, deeply binding the AI race to dollar hegemony. The logic behind this high-stakes gamble is both clear and radical: to infuse AI infrastructure with capital from the fully open financial markets, to use blockchain technology to reshape the global accessibility of dollar assets, and to use AI leadership to reinforce the dollar’s status. However, the inner fragility of this model is also obvious—the dollar is becoming more like a high-risk stock than a traditional safe haven anchor.

According to Wind Chaser Trading Desk, Deutsche Bank released a forex report on September 3, estimating that US companies will spend about $800 billion on AI capital expenditures this year, with AI venture funding exceeding $400 billion in 2023. The combined financing of the two largest AI labs alone approaches $217 billion, with valuations nearing $1 trillion each. Meanwhile, tech giants such as Google, Meta, Amazon, and Oracle have this year raised about ten times the average annual level (2020 to 2024) in the investment-grade credit market.

The impact of this capital mobilization has directly transmitted to the structural risks facing the dollar. As the US source of financing shifts from official long-term capital to private short-term tech capital, the correlation between the dollar and the stock market is rising, and its traditional risk-hedging function is weakening. If the AI business model is disproven, or the US falls behind in the AI race, the dollar will face severe downward pressure.

Flood of Capital Inflows: Three Financing Channels Simultaneously Open

The US is simultaneously raising capital on a massive scale via three channels: private equity, public debt, and stock markets.

In the private equity market, AI venture funding has raised over $400 billion this year, with more than 90% of the largest deals concentrated in the US, an annual growth rate three times that of last year. In the debt market, ultra-large tech enterprises are, for the first time, forced to massively pivot to bond financing—Google, Meta, Oracle, and Amazon’s investment-grade credit market financing this year is about ten times the average annual level from 2020 to 2024. In the public stock market, Google will complete its first equity offering since its 2004 IPO in June 2026, raising $85 billion; SpaceX, with a near $2 trillion valuation, completed the largest IPO in history.

The backdrop to this financing wave is the US’s expanding dual deficits—fiscal deficits exceeding 6% of GDP, and current account deficits approaching 4% of GDP. In the absence of domestic fiscal savings, incremental AI capital expenditure must rely on overseas capital. Deutsche Bank data shows that in Q2 2026, the US attracted over $400 billion in foreign equity capital in a single quarter—far exceeding any historical single-quarter level and significantly surpassing debt inflows, which had long been the main source of US capital account financing.

Notably, foreign official sector long-term allocation appetite for US Treasuries is declining due to geopolitical rifts, but the allure of tech assets is filling this gap via private channels such as retail investors. Reports suggest SpaceX reserved about 30% of its IPO for retail investors—more than three times that of traditional IPOs—highlighting US companies’ clear recognition of changes in financing structure.

Asset Tokenization: The Next Technological Pivot for Dollar Hegemony

As large-scale financing unfolds, the US is deploying blockchain technology as the infrastructure to attract global capital, pushing asset tokenization from concept to reality.

Asset tokenization refers to converting the ownership of financial assets such as stocks, bonds, and real estate into digital tokens recorded on the blockchain. The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), which currently holds about $115 trillion in US assets, completed the first batch of asset tokenization for real transactions in July 2026, with 40 financial institutions participating. These included the tokenization pilot for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and JPMorgan’s pilot using tokenized assets to meet CME margin requirements. DTCC plans to launch tokenization services officially in October 2026.

On the regulatory front, in December 2025, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sent DTCC a “no-action” letter confirming that the same security can be traded in parallel via traditional and on-chain tracks, enjoying the same investor protection and ownership rights. An additional January 2026 ruling clarified that the format of custody/issuance does not affect the application of federal securities law, providing strong regulatory backing for tokenization.

On the exchange front, the New York Stock Exchange is cooperating with Securitize to develop a new digital platform aimed at enabling 24/7 trading, instant settlement, fractionalized stock trading, and stablecoin settlement; Nasdaq announced the rollout of an “equity token design” with full tokenization capabilities planned for 2027, and will launch 23/5 trading by the end of 2025.

Deutsche Bank believes tokenization’s strategic significance for the dollar lies in: on one hand, tokenized assets have higher collateral liquidity, which can improve capital efficiency and enhance the attractiveness of US assets to global investors; on the other hand, if US stocks and bonds achieve 24/7 instant settlement, this will greatly lower the access bar for global retail investors, further expanding the base of demand for dollar assets. Korea’s experience is illustrative—while accounting for just 2% of global nominal GDP, Korea contributed about 10% of last year’s $740 billion foreign inflow into US equities, due to its early opening up of fractional foreign stock trading.

Currently, the total scale of real-world assets already tokenized globally is about $40 billion—tiny compared to the US’s $100+ trillion asset base, indicating immense room for growth. Market forecasts predict tokenized assets may reach $2 trillion to $30 trillion in the 2030s.

The Dollar’s New Risk Map: From Safe-Haven Asset to AI Bet

This twin gamble on capital and technology is reshaping the risk profile of the dollar.

Deutsche Bank points out that the US is undergoing a fundamental transformation in its financing structure: from official sector–led, long-term, geopolitically motivated capital inflows to private-sector–led, short-term, tech-return driven inflows. This shift has raised the correlation between the dollar and the stock market, with its historical role as an equity risk hedge fading.

This logic means that the dollar’s fate is now deeply bound to the outcome of the AI race. If AI capital expenditure is ultimately shown to lack economic payoff, or the US loses its lead in technological competition, a large-scale withdrawal of private capital would hit the dollar directly.

Meanwhile, while tokenization lowers the barrier to capital inflows, it equally reduces friction for capital outflows. The enhanced liquidity of capital is a double-edged sword—it can accelerate inflows during tailwinds, but also hasten outflows during headwinds.

From a more macro perspective, Deutsche Bank states that the US is participating in the AI race with a model of “open markets + closed technology”: attracting global capital via fully open financial markets, while keeping AI model weights closed to maintain corporate pricing power and shareholder returns. The cornerstone of this model: American AI firms must consistently maintain technological leadership and translate it into sustainable profitability.

The Capitalist Model Faces a Stress Test

Deutsche Bank’s report raises a deeper proposition: the AI race is more than a technological contest—it’s a contest of economic models, with the US’s shareholder capitalism itself now undergoing a stress test.

The logic of the American model is: open capital markets attract global funds → large-scale capital fuels technological innovation → tech leadership underpins corporate pricing power → high profit returns attract more capital inflow. This positive cycle depends on AI firms’ ability to charge high subscription fees to global users and to monetize intellectual property in international markets.

But this cycle contains clear vulnerabilities. If the AI business model fails to generate adequate economic returns or US companies’ pricing power erodes, corporate profits will be pressured, shaking the core logic for attracting foreign capital and intensifying already high fiscal deficit pressure.

Deutsche Bank also notes that AI revenue streams could, by raising service exports, improve the US current account by about 1 percentage point over the next decade—but this outlook is highly contingent on whether US AI firms can sustain pricing power and successfully monetize global users.

The report ultimately characterizes this as a final test of the US’s core belief that “truly open capital markets always yield optimal innovation.” The outcome of the AI race will to a large extent determine whether this principle still holds—along with the dollar’s status as the global capital hub.