Malaysian Ringgit: Range-bound risks and key levels against US Dollar – OCBC

OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept the OPR at 2.75% and struck a slightly firmer tone, with growth expected to stay resilient into 2027. The economist still projects an OPR normalisation to 3.00% in January 2027. Wong highlights that a relatively firm domestic backdrop should support the Malaysian Ringgit, but says near-term USD/MYR moves will track the broader USD, risk sentiment and global rates.

Ringgit supported but range-bound

"BNM kept the OPR unchanged at 2.75%, as expected, but the accompanying statement carried a slightly firmer tone. "

"BNM now expects the economy’s sound fundamentals to keep growth resilient into 2027, while flagging the need to remain vigilant to cost pressures and domestic demand conditions amid elevated global commodity prices."

"Notably, the MPC also dropped its previous description of the current policy stance as “appropriate”, retaining only that monetary policy stance remains consistent with price stability and sustainable growth."

"Our Economist continues to look for a normalisation of the OPR to 3.00% in Jan 2027. The relatively firm domestic backdrop should remain supportive of MYR, although near-term direction will continue to take its cue from the broader USD, risk sentiment and global rates environment."

"USD/MYR last seen at 4.0420 levels. Bearish momentum on daily chart faded while rise in RSI moderated. 2-way risks likely. Support at 4.0320 (100, 200 DMAs, 50% fibo), 4.02 levels. Resistance at 4.05, 4.0610 levels (38.2% fibo retracement of May low to Jun high). "