Chainlink falls to $11.56, traders eye $12.30–$13.21 resistance zone

Technical signals and analyst outlook

Crypto analyst More Crypto Online described the recent decline as a potential wave (A) of an ABC corrective pattern, which could signal more volatility ahead before a recovery trend forms. He identified the $12.30–$13.21 region as the first significant resistance for LINK. Sustained trading above this area could support a bullish case, but ongoing rejection may continue to pressure the token throughout the corrective period.

TradingView data confirms the shift in trend, showing that after LINK climbed to its September peak, sellers dominated the market, resulting in a sequence of lower lows. LINK’s latest price action has pulled it back to a band of earlier consolidation, regarded by many market observers as a potential support zone.

Momentum indicators further illustrate the ongoing correction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 31.58, nearing oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is deeper in bearish territory, with the signal line declining and the red histogram growing.

Ongoing selling pressure is evident in both the RSI and MACD, but the RSI’s proximity to oversold levels may signal stabilization is approaching, even though oversold conditions do not assure an immediate turnaround.

Despite these signals, analysts generally caution that technical oversold conditions may linger, and a clear reversal often requires confirmation from other metrics.

Market participation and derivatives trends

Chainlink’s derivatives markets show a decline in speculative activity. According to CoinGlass, trading volume has fallen to $507.51 million, and open interest stands at $645.90 million. This drop signals traders are cautious and may be closing leveraged positions following the recent sell-off.

The contraction in both volume and open interest may also relieve some of the speculative pressure observed during the rally. Market participants are expected to watch for renewed growth in these indicators as a potential sign that traders are positioning for a fresh move.

Resilient network activity and address growth

On-chain data analyzed by Santiment Intelligence indicates Chainlink’s network activity has remained robust, even as prices corrected. New wallet addresses grew from about 974 daily in early August to 1,601 at the recent peak, before stabilizing near 1,140. Active wallet addresses also rose, reaching 5,572 at their height and recently sitting around 4,821.

Santiment highlighted that this address activity appears unique to Chainlink compared with platforms like Solana and Ethereum, pointing to continued user engagement on the network despite bearish price action.

Mini dictionary: Santiment Intelligence is a blockchain analytics firm specializing in on-chain, social, and development data across various crypto networks.

However, analysts noted that address metrics alone cannot distinguish between new and returning users, nor whether activity comes from a broad set of participants or a high-frequency subset.

Key price zones and market outlook

Market sentiment for Chainlink’s next move centers on the current support region and possible development of the ABC correction. Stabilization around present levels could give buyers a chance to build momentum toward the $12.30–$13.21 resistance zone.

A confirmed breakout above this resistance would improve short-term prospects, while ongoing declines could keep LINK vulnerable to further losses.

If LINK remains under pressure and fails to reclaim resistance, the corrective trend could deepen. Conversely, a recovery in both price and network activity might signal buyers are preparing for renewed upside.

Traders are closely monitoring the RSI, MACD, trading volume, open interest, and network activity as potential signals for a trend reversal or continued correction.