The oil valve is tightened, the $100 threshold is breached: self-reinforcement of supply panic

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智通财经2026/09/14 09:16

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Brent crude oil broke through $107 in one go on Monday, rising more than 3%. US crude also climbed above $103, with both benchmarks extending last week’s rally and regaining the $100 threshold.
The market’s focus is firmly locked on the security situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, two shipping lanes that carry a significant proportion of global crude oil transport.
Reports indicate that Saudi Arabia’s east-west oil pipeline was temporarily shut down due to a drone attack, and a merchant ship was attacked in the strait, with Iranian sources reporting casualties.
Iran has tightened control over the strait, now requiring vessels to apply for permission before passage and is considering a mechanism to charge service fees. Reportedly, those not cooperating have already been targeted.
The US has bombed parts of Iran’s coastline, directly challenging Tehran’s control over this strategic waterway, while Oman has delayed related talks between Iran and the Gulf states.
Since the early August lows, Brent has accumulated a gain of over 30%. Previous attempts by the US and Iran to reach a permanent ceasefire agreement have failed, and conflict flared again in late August.
Supply concerns have been further amplified by a sharp drop in Saudi output. Its average daily output in August fell to 6.2 million barrels, the lowest monthly level since 2026, representing a decline of about 23% from the previous month.
The threat posed by Yemen’s Houthi forces to oil shipments along Saudi Arabia’s west coast has further exacerbated this production cut scenario.
US energy stocks collectively strengthened in pre-market trading. ExxonMobil and Chevron both rose nearly 2%, while ConocoPhillips, EOG and other exploration companies gained between 1.6% and 2.9%. Oilfield services and refining stocks also rose in tandem.

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The oil valve is tightened, the $100 threshold is breached: self-reinforcement of supply panic

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