As global tungsten prices surge, U.S. mining company Almonty Industries (ALM.US) quickly acquires a tungsten mine in Rwanda to ease supply shortages.

Zhitong Finance APP reports that amid a historic surge in global tungsten prices and continuous tightening of China’s export controls, US mining company Almonty Industries (ALM.US) has reached a milestone cooperation agreement with the Rwandan government. According to the binding agreement disclosed on September 14, Rwanda will provide exploration concessions and processing licenses in exchange for a 25% equity stake in Almonty’s local subsidiary, while Almonty retains the remaining 75% ownership. This transaction is not only a key step for Almonty's global expansion strategy but also marks the first time the West has systemically extended its reach into the African continent in building a “de-Chinaized” tungsten supply chain.

Transaction Structure: “Concession + License” for Equity—An Asset-light Model

The ingenuity of this cooperation lies in its structure. The Rwandan government is not contributing cash but is bringing exploration concessions and processing licenses in exchange for a 25% equity stake in the local subsidiary. Almonty is responsible for providing technology, operations, and capital. This model allows Almonty to quickly access resources without incurring significant initial exploration costs.

What’s even more noteworthy is the pragmatic “acquire first, build later” approach. Almonty plans to acquire ores, pre-concentrates, and tailings from existing licensed producers in Rwanda, rather than waiting years for new mines to be developed. These materials can be sold, upgraded, or exported immediately, providing instant cash flow for the project. Meanwhile, the joint venture will construct permanent collection and processing facilities in Rwanda and deploy mobile processing units within the existing Shyorongi concession area (about 32 square kilometers) for exploration.

Almonty CEO Lewis Black clarified in an interview that the US government helped facilitate the cooperation and provided political support, but did not directly provide funding. The products will be sold to customers in the US, Europe, Japan, and South Korea.

Rwanda’s Strategic Role: Africa’s Only Top Ten Global Tungsten Producer

Rwanda is the only African country among the world’s top ten producers of tungsten, giving it strategic value far beyond its size in the West’s efforts to diversify supply chains. Currently, Vancouver-based Trinity Metals operates Africa’s largest tungsten mine, the Nyakabingo Mine, in Rwanda. Since signing an offtake agreement last year, the company has shipped over 320 tons of high-grade concentrates to a processing plant in Pennsylvania, USA, supplying about 20% of US primary tungsten concentrate consumption.

The core challenge in Almonty's cooperation is supply chain traceability. Rwanda has long faced accusations that tungsten ore is smuggled from neighboring Congo (DRC) and Burundi and “laundered” as Rwandan origin. Black’s response was clear and firm: “Traders can play with pirates; we’re only interested in licensed domestic output.” This statement highlights the tough choices Western buyers face between “geopolitical correctness” and “supply chain compliance.”

Tungsten Market Fundamentals: A “Structural Shortage” with Tenfold Growth in a Decade

Almonty’s increased investment in tungsten assets comes just as the tungsten market experiences unprecedented supply shocks. The global benchmark price for ammonium paratungstate (APT) has surged from about $300/MTU five years ago to over $3,000/MTU now, an almost tenfold increase. APT CIF prices in Europe currently range from $2,900 to $3,100/MTU, while domestic Chinese prices are about 595,000 yuan/ton, making the China-overseas price difference about $2,000/MTU.

The supply side faces multiple structural constraints. China accounts for about 80% of global tungsten mine production, but it is also under dual pressures of declining resource grades (the WO₃ grade in Jiangxi’s main mining areas has fallen from 0.40% to below 0.28%) and tighter policies (a 6.5% cut in the 2025 mining quota). In February 2025, China will include tungsten among other key metals in its export control list, directly causing a significant drop in APT and tungsten oxide availability for Western markets.

On the demand side, two major drivers—AI and defense—are fueling growth. Tungsten hexafluoride (WF₆) is an essential material for TSV processes in HBM and 3D NAND manufacturing, with global demand projected to rise from 9,000 tons in 2025 to 15,000 tons in 2030, corresponding to a net increase of 3,700 tons in tungsten demand. In PCB drill bits, AI server PCBs have increased from the traditional 12–16 layers to 24–40 layers, greatly increasing drill bit consumption, with an expected net increase in tungsten demand of 789 tons between 2025 and 2030.

The most critical catalyst is the new US defense procurement regulation effective January 1, 2027. From then, the US defense supply chain will prohibit the use of tungsten “covered materials” that are mined, produced, or processed in “countries of concern” (including China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran), and require mine-level traceability. This means much of the current global commercial inventory will not meet the requirements for US defense applications, forcing the Western military-industrial complex to undergo a structural decoupling from Chinese tungsten supply.

US Tungsten Stocks: Benefit Realization and Short-term Cooling Down

Although the Rwanda agreement is a typical thematic catalyst, US tungsten-related stocks have recently pulled back. On September 14, Almonty Industries closed down 6.52% at $15.49, and American Tungsten Corporation fell 5.33% to $1.42.

The pullback followed considerable gains: Almonty Industries’ share price is up about 67% year to date and 159% over the past 12 months, with a 52-week range of $4.45–$24.41. The fundamental support is also strong—with the Korean Sangdong mine shifting to processing in July, the company’s Q2 revenue reached CAD 43 million, up 498% year-on-year, reversing losses with a net profit of CAD 181.8 million, an ending cash position of about CAD 1.2 billion, and approval for up to $300 million in share buybacks. The company delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange on July 31, left the ASX on September 1, and is now only traded on Nasdaq (ALM) and Frankfurt.

Other sector companies are also following the supply chain theme: Guardian Metal Resources (GMTL.US) released its Pilot Mountain, Nevada project prefeasibility in June, with an after-tax NPV of $660.3 million and $6.2 million investment from the US Defense Production Act Title III; Fireweed Metals (OTCQX: FWEDF) is advancing an updated feasibility study for the Mactung project in Yukon, Canada—reputedly the world’s largest high-grade tungsten deposit—also supported by up to CAD 22.5 million under the same act; American Tungsten, as a designated supplier to the Defense Industrial Base Consortium (DIBC), is restarting the historic IMA mine in Idaho, targeting initial tungsten concentrate sales before year-end. Another market focus is compliance catalysis: According to the US National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), from January 2027, defense manufacturers must prove their tungsten supply chains are compliant, providing non-price-dependent rigid demand logic for domestic production capacity in the US and its allies.