Goldman Sachs: Gulf crude oil exports return to 2025 levels, oil market supply and demand largely balanced

1. Goldman Sachs stated in a report on Tuesday that it has estimated that oil exports from the Gulf region, including “shadow exports” transported with ship tracking devices turned off, have rebounded over the past week to 23.3 million barrels per day, basically in line with the average level for 2025, with the export volume in September doubling compared to previous figures.2. Goldman Sachs pointed out that the rebound in exports is mainly driven by increased exports through the Strait of Hormuz, which also includes ship-to-ship transfers. The bank estimates that nearly 90% of the increase in Gulf oil exports in September is crude oil; crude oil exports in the past week reached 19 million barrels per day, equivalent to 108% of the average 2025 level. The scale of “shadow exports” in September was approximately 5.2 million barrels per day.3. The report stated that exports of refined oil products and liquefied petroleum gas have increased, but exports of diesel, gasoline, and aviation fuel are still only at 50% of the average 2025 level. Goldman Sachs estimates that the overall global oil market supply and demand in September was balanced, and OECD commercial crude oil inventories were roughly on par with the level expected by the end of February 2026.4. Goldman Sachs said that Middle East supply and Chinese import demand have shown significant adaptability, supporting its base forecast: Brent crude oil is expected to fall back to $85 per barrel by year-end, and to $80 by 2027. The cumulative increase in Brent in September is expected to reach around 14%, the largest monthly increase since July.5. Oil prices continued to climb on Wednesday as U.S. President Trump denied willingness to ease sanctions on Iran, while Qatar promoted peace talks. Goldman Sachs added it remains concerned about renewed escalation and further damage to energy infrastructure, which could drive oil prices up sharply.