The National Day holiday has entered its final day, and the market is about to see capital return. Although the past two trading days overseas were regular trading sessions, both BTC and ETH trading volumes remained light, with clear signs of contracted and range-bound activity.
Currently, both assets are at a key inflection point, but their structures are diverging notably:
BTC is still consolidating near its highs in a compression phase, maintaining a medium-term bullish structure, but selling pressure above keeps increasing. ETH, on the other hand, has broken below its previous consolidation range, with retail long positions crowded and the risk of a downside leverage flush blatantly higher than with BTC.
The market focus today is on the Federal Reserve meeting minutes. The market has already priced in relatively dovish policy expectations; if the minutes align with these expectations, the marginal impact on risk assets may be limited. What truly warrants caution is a more hawkish-than-expected stance—if the interest rate path is repriced, the crypto market, which has been oscillating at high levels for days, could use this as a trigger for amplified volatility.
Therefore, the core today remains:
BTC and others watching for a breakout, ETH needs defence against a breakdown; do not take large positions and bet on direction before the data, follow the market after the news is out.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
View: Favour shorts from high, supplement with longs on dips; key is to observe whether the 85,500 zone can be decisively broken.
BTC has been trading within the broad 82,500–87,500 range for over two weeks, now mostly moving near the upper edge of its lower box.
Technical signals warrant some caution.
Momentum on the daily chart has stayed muted, setting up for a possible bearish divergence; on the 4-hour MACD, though still above zero, the bullish momentum keeps declining. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands are tightening, and price is hugging the upper band, indicating volatility is suppressed to low levels.
Liquidity remains BTC's most critical support, but lack of short-term trading volume is a real issue.
In particular, the 85,000–85,500 zone has seen continued growth in selling pressure; if price repeatedly tests this level without a breakout, a reversal back into the trading box is likely.
Therefore, today’s key observations are:
Holding 83,500, one can wait for further recovery;
Watch for resistance on a rebound at 84,500–85,200;
Genuine breakout with volume at 85,800–86,300 would be needed to open up more upside.
Prior to that, continue to view the market as broadly range-bound.
Support: 83,500, 82,000–82,500
Resistance: 84,500, 85,200, 85,800–86,300
⟠ Ethereum (ETH)
View: Favour shorts from high, supplement with longs on dips; compared to BTC, more caution is needed for accelerated downside.
ETH’s structure is clearly weaker than BTC.
The long-standing narrow 2,680–2,725 range has now been broken to the downside, with price falling back near 2,612. This implies preceding extreme compression is now breaking to the downside.
The technicals are also weak.
MACD has previously converged to the zero line, indicating bullish momentum is basically exhausted; in terms of order flow, active selling is dominant, and short-term capital continues to exit.
What's particularly notable is the risk of liquidation below.
The 2,580 region is not just technical support but also a sensitive area for leveraged longs. If it’s breached and triggers concentrated stop-losses, it could easily lead to:
Breakdown of support → long positions liquidated → passive selling increases → price continues to fall
This kind of chain reaction.
Retail long positions were already crowded before, so after this breakdown, these positions may fuel further downside acceleration for shorts.
However, after a continuous weak spell, it’s also not recommended to blindly chase shorts near support. If price quickly wicks below 2,580–2,600 and then recovers, a technical rebound could still occur.
Support: 2,580–2,600, 2,550
Resistance: 2,650–2,680, 2,700–2,720
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