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Prerequisites for bottom-fishing gold and silver 261008

Prerequisites for bottom-fishing gold and silver 261008

地平线全球策略地平线全球策略2026/10/08 03:39
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Prerequisites for bottom-fishing gold and silver 261008 image 0

CMX
Gold (weekly chart, as of
261004
)

Prerequisites for bottom-fishing gold and silver 261008 image 1

CMX
Gold (daily chart, as of
261004
)

Accurate support on the upward white line.
Prerequisites for bottom-fishing gold and silver 261008 image 2
Over the past month, CTAs have sold 4.7 million ounces of notional gold, but gold prices did not hit new lows. To some extent, this means the price impact from selling was smaller than usual, indicating the market showed strong absorption capacity.
Apart from ETFs and proprietary trading participants, another 77 tonnes of outflow was absorbed through spot trading, EFPs and other arbitrage trades. If gold prices continue to fall sharply, CTAs may reach their effective maximum short position by next week, thus limiting further selling pressure.
If this wave of selling gradually weakens, prices may react more easily to the upside, of course, provided that prices can hold above the white line.
...
Prerequisites for bottom-fishing gold and silver 261008 image 3
Gold CN Basket (daily chart, as of 261004)
The Mainland Gold Basket shows the first delayed bottom formation; if support holds this will form a lower high, otherwise a test of T1 will be needed before the decline can be halted. For those going long, note the basket should not break below the low of the 29th.
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Prerequisites for bottom-fishing gold and silver 261008 image 4
CMX Silver (daily chart, as of 261004)
Silver: after triggering a bearish reversal the price continued lower; in last week’s report, SL was adjusted to PT. Silver remains weaker than gold, partly because the ratio structure faces resistance and also as the price moves along the downward parallel line.
Prerequisites for bottom-fishing gold and silver 261008 image 5
Silver-Gold Ratio (daily chart, as of 261004)
The lower horizontal support for the ratio is accurate.
...
There are three main things to watch for in the precious metals market going forward:
1) The relationship with the bond market—can it break cross-asset pressure? ... 2) Whether real financial conditions can find a bottom, i.e., can the liquidity perspective provide support?... 3) Can the Silver-Gold Ratio confirm a breakout of the white line, in other words, can bullish sentiment truly return? ...
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Prerequisites for bottom-fishing gold and silver 261008 image 6

NMX
Platinum (daily chart, as of
261004
)

Prerequisites for bottom-fishing gold and silver 261008 image 7

NMX
Palladium (daily chart, as of
261004
)

Palladium is the weakest among precious metals, as previously discussed in the weekly report.
...
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Prerequisites for bottom-fishing gold and silver 261008 image 8
HG (daily chart, as of 261004)
Copper: price continues to rise, while momentum continues to weaken. Our system’s top signal issued on 26.09.22 still marks the highest point of this rally (declining ever since).
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Prerequisites for bottom-fishing gold and silver 261008 image 9
Prerequisites for bottom-fishing gold and silver 261008 image 10

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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Bitget•2026/10/08 09:33

BUZZ-Comment—October May Be the Month for Euro to Break Out of Its Range

Reuters, October 8 – The EUR/USD monthly chart is currently forming two bearish signals, which may both be confirmed by the October closing price: first, a break below the lower bound of a range that has been maintained for more than a year; second, a close below the 100-month moving average. After rising from 1.0125 to 1.1830 between February 2025 and July 2025, EUR/USD consolidated sideways within a range of 1.1325 to 1.2084. Based on closing prices, the 200-month moving average (currently at 1.1825) constituted most of the upper resistance for this range, while the 100-month moving average (currently at 1.1194) provided support. Dragged down by fiscal concerns, the pair dropped from slightly above 1.1700 in August to a low of 1.1161 in October, with the euro hovering near a 17-month low. Key drivers include mounting fiscal and political risks in the Eurozone, rising global bond yields, and a resilient dollar supported by high energy prices and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations. Confirmation signals: The month has only just begun, and the trend remains uncertain; the spot price is currently almost exactly at the 100-month moving average (100-MMA). If the monthly closing price falls below 1.1325, it would confirm a range break; a close below 1.1194 would confirm the second signal. If both occur, deeper support levels could be tested before year-end. Key levels: Fibonacci retracements for the rally from 1.0125 to 1.2084 show the 38.2% retracement at 1.1336. This coincides with the range bottom, reinforcing its resistance role in any rebound. The 50% retracement is at 1.1105 and serves as the first target on the downside. The upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the monthly chart is at 1.0938, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels. The 61.8% retracement is at 1.0873, representing a deeper downside target. Momentum indicators: The monthly RSI is trending downward, and the 14-month momentum indicator is negative, both supporting a bearish outlook. Invalidation condition: If the exchange rate rebounds and the monthly close returns above 1.1325, the above signals will be invalidated and the pair will revert to range trading. For more, refer to FXBUZ EUR/USD Monthly Chart: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/buzz/zdvxeqlxzpx/Pasted%20image%201791448056243.png (For the convenience of non-native English readers, Reuters provides automated translations of its reports into several other languages. As automated translations may be inaccurate or lack the required context, Reuters does not guarantee their accuracy and provides them solely for readers’ convenience. Reuters accepts no responsibility for any harm or loss arising from use of the automated translation function.)

路透社•2026/10/08 09:31