Recently, quite a few crypto friends have asked an interesting question: Before Trump's rise, Bitcoin surged from around 75,000 to 120,000. Now, with Trump about to wrap up his light Bitcoin position, will Bitcoin fall back below 70,000?
First, a correction: This isn’t a “prediction” issue, since right now it’s fluctuating just above 75,000.
CME Bitcoin futures closed at 75,785 last night, with a daily low of 74,810 and the market cap evaporated by about 140 billion in 4 hours. In other words, the 75,000 level has just been touched. The real question is whether this is a support or a midway point for downward movement.
Three key points
1. Interest rates have reversed. The Federal Reserve stayed put in October at 3.75%-4%, and Chairman Walsh explicitly refused to soften the inflation target. Last night, nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations and the unemployment rate fell, pushing the chance of a rate hike in December to 68.7% (China Financial Information Network, Beijing News). What crypto fears most isn’t the rate hike itself, but the removal of “expectations of easing.” The rally in 2024 was driven by the narrative of rate cuts.
2. The policy tailwind is receding. The Democratic Party won majorities in both chambers in the midterms, making the legislation of the “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act” even more difficult, putting regulation back in a tug-of-war between SEC and CFTC (Toutiao). The premium from the previous “crypto-friendly government” is being gradually priced out.
3. Overall risk appetite is shrinking. Two days ago, the Nasdaq and S&P recorded their worst single day since April 2025, only bouncing back last night with chip stocks. BTC is now highly correlated with Nasdaq, and the leverage liquidation fuse is always in place.
Second, the same 75,000 carries a completely different meaning
Before Trump’s rise in 2024, it just soared from 68,000, ETF trading volume just started to grow, new inflows came in, coupled with expectations of rate cuts and trading based on those expectations.
Compared to the frontline low after a 25% correction from the 100,000 high at the start of the year, plus institutions pricing ETF down 27% in one year, capital flow and pricing together with rate hike anticipation and realized trades.
So don’t treat “back to 75,000” as an equivalent reference — in 2024, 75,000 was the floor; now, 75,000 is the contested spot below the ceiling. In June this year, it even dropped below 60,000 (Securities Times), showing that the lower bound of this market is looser than most remember.
Third, how it moves, watch these levels
· 75,000 to 74,810 (low point this week): This is currently the only close-range defense. If the daily closes below 74,800, it means 75k has shifted from support to resistance.
· Above, 79,000–80,000: This week’s failed rebound point; if it can't regain, the structure is still downward.
· Below, 70,000 integer mark; further down are June’s deep water levels at 58,000–60,000.
My view: In the short term, it’s likely to be weak and volatile. The probability of breaking below 75,000 is no lower than holding, not because it’s expensive, but because the three pillars driving it — 1. liquidity, 2. policy, 3. risk appetite — are all trending downward. But to really fall back to the 2024 “starting level” below 68,000 would need a systemic correction in the US stock market. Crypto’s own leverage purge isn’t enough.
As for Trump’s departure itself: The crypto market has already mostly priced him in. What lingers is a chronic negative as policies stall during the lame duck period, not a one-off shock. The real watershed that will determine the direction next year is the December rate decision.
