how has the stock market done since trump took office

This article reviews how has the stock market done since trump took office (Jan 20, 2025–present). It summarizes index returns, major drivers (earnings, AI concentration, fiscal and trade policy, F...

2026-02-07 02:04:00

By Meta Cipher

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Stock market performance since Donald Trump took office (January 20, 2025–present)

how has the stock market done since trump took office — this article answers that question with a data-driven, source-cited review of U.S. equity market performance from President Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025 through the latest available reports (coverage current as of Jan 20, 2026). Readers will find cumulative and annualized index returns, a timeline of headline events and market reactions, analysis of drivers (earnings, valuation, policy, monetary environment), market structure (sector leadership, breadth, volatility), macro links, international comparisons, impacts on other asset classes including cryptocurrencies, and an actionable list of indicators investors watch. All statements are factual and attributed to primary reporting; this is not investment advice.

As of Jan 20, 2026, according to Morningstar / MarketWatch (Jan 17, 2026) and Bloomberg (Jan 20, 2026):

The S&P 500 delivered roughly a mid‑teens price return in the first 12 months after Jan 20, 2025 (Morningstar / MarketWatch reported about +16% over the first year).
Major U.S. large‑cap indexes were driven materially by gains in a concentrated set of AI and large‑cap technology winners, with cap‑weighted benchmarks outperforming equal‑weight measures.
Market volatility spiked around several policy and trade announcements (notably an April 2, 2025 tariff episode and Jan 19–20, 2026 Greenland tariff threats), documented in CNBC live coverage (Jan 19, 2026) and other outlets.

This article uses public index data, mainstream financial reporting, and institutional commentary cited inline. Where ranges or differing measures exist (price vs total return, cap‑weighted vs equal‑weighted), the text notes those distinctions.

Background and scope

This piece focuses on U.S. equity market performance for the period beginning January 20, 2025 (the inauguration date cited in the query) through the most recent data and reporting available as of Jan 20, 2026. "how has the stock market done since trump took office" in this context pertains to U.S. stock indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite/100), sector and breadth measures, volatility indicators (VIX), and related macro and asset‑class moves (Treasury yields, commodities, and cryptocurrencies). Data sources used include reporting from Bloomberg (Jan 20, 2026), Morningstar / MarketWatch (Jan 17, 2026), Kiplinger (Jan 16, 2026), CNN Business (Nov 4, 2025), CNBC (live coverage Jan 19, 2026), The Economist tracker, U.S. Bank (Jan 9, 2026), Investor’s Business Daily (Jan 20, 2026), Macrotrends, and Business Insider.

Methodology notes:

Where available, primary reports’ price‑return figures are used; total‑return (price plus dividends) figures are noted when reports specify them.
Index returns are measured from the close on Jan 17–20, 2025 (depending on reporting convention) through date ranges cited in each source; readers should expect small differences when comparing sources that use intra‑day snapshots or different calendar cutoffs.
Sector and breadth commentary draws on institutional summaries and market‑cap weightings reported by the cited outlets.

Overall index performance

how has the stock market done since trump took office? In short: U.S. large‑cap equities posted positive net returns through the first 12 months of the administration, led by a concentrated group of mega‑cap and AI‑exposed names. Reporting highlights include:

S&P 500: Morningstar / MarketWatch reported about a +16% price return in the first year after Jan 20, 2025 (reported Jan 17, 2026). That figure represents a representative mid‑teens gain for the broad U.S. large‑cap benchmark in the year that followed the inauguration.
Nasdaq Composite / Nasdaq‑100: Multiple outlets (Bloomberg; Kiplinger) noted that Nasdaq and Nasdaq‑100 outperformance versus the S&P 500 was driven by AI and large‑cap technology winners. Published ranges across sources put Nasdaq‑family returns in the mid‑to‑high‑teens to low‑twenties percent for the first year; exact numbers vary by source and by whether price or total returns are used.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Reporting indicated the Dow lagged the tech‑heavy indices, delivering lower single‑digit to mid‑single‑digit gains over comparable intervals, reflecting its greater exposure to industrial and legacy sectors (Bloomberg commentary, Jan 20, 2026).

Differences between price‑only and total‑return measures are material over multi‑year windows but are modest for the 12‑month snapshot covered in most reports. Some institutional summaries emphasize that much of the S&P’s gain was explained by earnings growth rather than pure multiple expansion (Kiplinger, Jan 16, 2026).

Year‑by‑year and intra‑year returns

Breaking the performance into calendar and intra‑year slices reveals variability:

Calendar 2025: The market ended 2025 with net gains, but with concentrated leadership. Several months showed record closes for cap‑weighted benchmarks, particularly in the back half of the year when AI‑related earnings beats and multiple re‑rating occurred (CNN Business, Nov 4, 2025).
First 12 months (Jan 20, 2025–Jan 20, 2026): As above, the S&P was reported near +16% (Morningstar/MarketWatch) over the first full 12‑month period after inauguration.
Intra‑year volatility: Notable drawdowns and rebounds occurred around specific policy announcements and geopolitical‑adjacent episodes (see timeline below). The pattern through 2025–Jan‑2026 involved episodic selloffs followed by strong dip‑buying, especially into large‑cap tech.

Timeline of major market‑moving events

This chronological list highlights events that materially affected markets during the covered period. Each entry notes the date, the event, immediate market reaction, and follow‑through where available.

April 2, 2025 — "Liberation Day" tariff announcement: A broad tariff package announced on April 2, 2025 prompted an immediate market selloff across cyclical and consumer-exposed names. Reports recorded multi‑day declines and increased volatility as investors priced in potential cost pass‑through to inflation and earnings uncertainty (source coverage synthesized from U.S. Bank commentary and Bloomberg reporting).
Mid‑2025 — AI earnings and megacap leadership: Through summer and autumn 2025, recurring earnings surprises from major AI‑chip and cloud‑infrastructure companies drove large gains in cap‑weighted indices. Record closes in several sessions were logged for the S&P and Nasdaq family indexes (CNN Business, Nov 4, 2025).
July 2025 — "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" tax legislation passage: A mid‑year fiscal package with business‑facing provisions and incentives for domestic investment supported risk appetite. Markets reacted positively to the perceived boost to corporate earnings and investment demand (reports summarized from Kiplinger and U.S. Bank coverage).
Late 2025 — Periodic trade skirmishes and negotiation headlines: A sequence of tariff threats, bilateral negotiation updates, and targeted trade measures created headline risk and intraday swings in sectors exposed to global supply chains (Bloomberg, The Economist tracker).
Jan 19–20, 2026 — Greenland tariff threats and Jan 19 selloff: CNBC live coverage (Jan 19, 2026) documented a sharp drop in the Dow (about 500 points intraday reported) tied to headline policy threats regarding Greenland and capital‑flow concerns. The market experienced a brief episode of heightened volatility with sharp intraday moves and subsequent partial recovery.
Ongoing Fed policy developments (2025–early 2026): The Federal Reserve’s communications on rate path and any prospective cuts had a strong influence on yields and equity multiples through the period. Market pricing of terminal rate expectations and any cuts translated to valuation expansion in long‑duration growth names (synthesized from The Economist and Bloomberg commentary).

Each of these events produced measurable impacts to price action, volatility indicators, and investor sentiment. In many cases, the initial selloff was followed by partial or full recovery as earnings and liquidity conditions supported equity valuations.

Drivers of market performance

how has the stock market done since trump took office? The performance reflects an interaction of corporate results, fiscal and trade policy, monetary policy, and market structure dynamics.

Corporate earnings vs valuation expansion

Multiple reports, including Kiplinger (Jan 16, 2026), observed that earnings growth explained a substantial portion of the S&P 500’s gains in the first year after Jan 20, 2025. Key points:

Earnings growth contributed materially: Analysts noted that positive revenue and earnings revisions, particularly among technology and enterprise software firms benefiting from AI product cycles, accounted for a meaningful share of index gains.
Valuation/multiple expansion: Some multiple expansion occurred, especially for AI winners and long‑duration growth stocks, though institutional coverage highlighted that the earnings component was significant rather than pure re‑rating.

Fiscal and trade policy

Fiscal measures (notably mid‑2025 tax legislation) and an active tariff strategy were major factors:

Fiscal stimulus and investment incentives: The July 2025 package bolstered sentiment toward sectors sensitive to capital expenditure, helping support cyclical exposure.
Tariff and trade actions: Recurrent tariff announcements and trade threats (e.g., April 2, 2025 tariffs; Jan 2026 Greenland‑related threats) injected episodic uncertainty. Markets priced in margin pressure risks for import‑reliant firms and potential second‑round inflation effects.

Monetary policy and interest rates

The Federal Reserve’s stance and expectations for the Fed funds rate shaped equity valuations:

Rate expectations: Any signal of easing or a less‑hawkish terminal rate supported multiple expansion, particularly for growth stocks with far‑out cash flows.
Yield movements: Treasury yields moved with changes in inflation expectations and Fed guidance; downward pressure on yields at times supported higher equity valuations.

Geopolitical and policy shocks

Events with political or geopolitical implications (tariff threats, high‑profile policy announcements) increased headline risk and VIX levels episodically. CNBC’s Jan 19, 2026 live coverage of the Greenland episode is an example where policy headlines triggered rapid market re‑pricing.

Market internals and structure

Sector leadership and concentration

how has the stock market done since trump took office? One hallmark has been concentration:

Heavy weight in AI‑exposed mega‑caps: Investor focus on a small set of companies delivering outsized revenue and profit growth from AI products translated into disproportionate index contribution. Investor’s Business Daily (Jan 20, 2026) and Bloomberg (Jan 20, 2026) reported that a small group of top stocks materially drove S&P performance, echoing themes commonly described as the market’s large‑cap concentration.
Implication: Cap‑weighted indices benefitted more than equal‑weighted or small‑cap indices, raising concerns among some analysts about breadth and the robustness of gains across the market.

Breadth and equal‑weight performance

Equal‑weight vs cap‑weight: Equal‑weight versions of the S&P and small‑cap indices lagged cap‑weighted counterparts in periods when a handful of large names led returns. This divergence is consistent with the reports that cap concentration contributed materially to headline gains.
Small caps: Small‑cap performance varied with macro growth prospects and risk‑appetite cycles; they underperformed in many intervals where investors favored large, AI‑exposed names.

Volatility and sentiment indicators

VIX episodes: Volatility spiked around the April 2025 tariff announcement and the Jan 19–20, 2026 Greenland headline episode. Those spikes reflected short‑term fear and risk repricing.
Sentiment: Surveys and flows during 2025–early 2026 suggested cyclical swings between risk‑on positioning into AI winners and risk‑off into safety when policy headlines surfaced.

Macroeconomic context

how has the stock market done since trump took office must be read alongside GDP, inflation, employment, and currency dynamics:

GDP and growth: Through 2025, the U.S. posted modest to solid growth in reported GDP figures, supporting corporate revenue trends. The Economist’s U.S. economic tracker and institutional reports noted positive growth momentum in several quarters.
Labor market: Unemployment remained low in 2025, providing demand support to parts of the economy while complicating Fed decisions on rates.
Inflation: Headline and core inflation readings moderated at times but remained a key focus for markets and Fed policy; tariff episodes raised concerns about inflation pass‑through.
Dollar and bond market: U.S. dollar strength at various points affected international earnings translations for multinational companies; Treasury yield moves influenced equity multiples and sector rotation.

International comparisons

Relative returns: Bloomberg (Jan 20, 2026) noted intervals where global markets outperformed the U.S., highlighting that an exclusively U.S. view can miss broader cross‑market dynamics.
Drivers: Currency moves and differing sector exposures (e.g., European value stocks, emerging market cyclicals) led to divergence; international equities sometimes offered better breadth when U.S. markets were concentrated.

Impact on other asset classes

Fixed income and yields

Treasury yields: Movements in the 10‑year Treasury yield tracked changing Fed expectations; lower yields at times supported higher equity valuations.
Yield curve: Inversion signals and subsequent partial steepening were monitored as indicators of growth and recession risk, influencing risk premia in equities.

Commodities and currencies

Oil and gold: Commodities responded to real economy signals and geopolitical risk; for instance, oil reacted to trade and global demand expectations, while gold often rose as a volatility hedge.
U.S. dollar: Dollar strength intermittently pressured multinational equity earnings translated from abroad.

Cryptocurrencies

Crypto performance: The Economist and other trackers referenced volatility in cryptocurrencies over the period. Crypto returns broadly followed risk‑asset appetite at times—ranging from risk‑on rallies when liquidity and sentiment favored growth assets to risk‑off declines amid headline shocks.
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Market reactions and notable episodes (case studies)

Short case studies of high‑impact episodes help illustrate how policy headlines translated into market moves.

Case study 1 — April 2, 2025 tariff announcement:

What happened: A broad tariff package was announced.
Immediate market reaction: Multi‑day declines in cyclical sectors and broad volatility.
Follow‑through: Partial recovery occurred once guidance on implementation and exemptions was clarified; investors re‑evaluated earnings impacts (reported in institutional summaries).

Case study 2 — AI and Nvidia‑led rally:

What happened: A string of earnings beats and product rollouts from AI‑exposed companies prompted outsized gains.
Immediate market reaction: Cap‑weighted indices set multiple record closes; narrow leadership increased.
Follow‑through: Sector concentration raised breadth concerns, with equal‑weight indices trailing.

Case study 3 — Greenland headline (Jan 19–20, 2026):

What happened: Policy threats involving Greenland, reported live by CNBC on Jan 19, 2026, coincided with a sharp intraday downdraft in the Dow and equity markets.
Immediate market reaction: A reported ~500‑point drop in the Dow in intraday trading (CNBC live coverage) and elevated VIX.
Follow‑through: Markets partially recovered after calmer headlines and liquidity support.

Comparison with previous presidencies

Using historical datasets like Macrotrends and Business Insider trackers, analysts place the Jan 20, 2025–Jan 20, 2026 period in context:

Relative performance: The first 12 months’ mid‑teens S&P gain places this administration’s initial 12‑month performance in the range of other positive first‑year presidencies, though the concentration dynamics differ from prior episodes dominated by broader participation.
Drivers differ: Compared with some prior presidencies where broad cyclical gains dominated, the 2025–early‑2026 period featured pronounced leadership by a small set of large, AI‑exposed companies.

Risks, criticisms and debates

Analysts highlighted several risks and points of debate as of Jan 20, 2026:

Policy uncertainty: Recurrent tariff announcements and headline policy episodes increase uncertainty for multinational firms and supply chains.
Market concentration: Heavy reliance on a handful of mega‑caps raises questions about the breadth and durability of gains.
Inflation pass‑through: Tariff‑driven cost increases could feed into margins and headline inflation, complicating Fed policy.
Fiscal sustainability: Larger deficits tied to fiscal measures were flagged by some analysts as medium‑term macro risks.

These risks inform scenario analysis and the set of indicators that market participants monitor.

Outlook and consensus views

Mainstream institutional commentary into early 2026 signaled a range of scenarios for the next 12–24 months. Common watch items include:

Corporate earnings trajectory and guidance, especially among AI and enterprise software firms.
Fed communications and realized inflation readings, which influence yield curves and valuation multiples.
Policy headlines on tariffs and trade that can induce episodic volatility.
Breadth measures—whether equal‑weight and small‑cap indices begin to participate in gains more broadly.

Analysts’ views ranged from continued cautious optimism if earnings momentum persists to concerns over valuation sensitivity if growth expectations moderate.

Data sources and methodology (detailed)

Primary datasets and reporting used to compile this article (reports cited where relevant):

Index returns: S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite/100 (reported figures from Morningstar / MarketWatch, Kiplinger, Bloomberg; historical comparisons via Macrotrends).
Volatility: VIX and intraday volatility episodes (CNBC live coverage; Bloomberg volatility commentary).
Macro: GDP, CPI, unemployment metrics (The Economist U.S. tracker; official releases summarized by reporting outlets).
Market structure: Sector weights and concentration (Investor’s Business Daily, Bloomberg analysis).

Caveats:

Some outlets report price returns while others report total returns (price + dividends); this article notes the difference where material.
Publication timestamps and cutoffs vary by source; readers comparing figures should confirm the exact date and snapshot used by each provider.

References and reporting notes (sample citations)

As of Jan 20, 2026, Bloomberg reported that global stocks at times outperformed the U.S. while noting U.S. concentration in large caps (Bloomberg, Jan 20, 2026).
As of Jan 17, 2026, Morningstar / MarketWatch reported the S&P 500 gained approximately 16% in the first year after Jan 20, 2025 (Morningstar / MarketWatch, Jan 17, 2026).
As of Jan 16, 2026, Kiplinger analyzed the balance between earnings growth and multiple expansion in explaining first‑year gains (Kiplinger, Jan 16, 2026).
CNN Business covered record highs and AI‑driven concentration in November 2025 (CNN Business, Nov 4, 2025).
CNBC provided live coverage of the Jan 19, 2026 intraday drop tied to Greenland‑related headlines (CNBC live coverage, Jan 19, 2026).
The Economist maintains an interactive U.S. economic tracker and commentaries used for macro context (The Economist tracker, 2025–2026 updates).
U.S. Bank published a narrative summary on market behavior under the administration (U.S. Bank, Jan 9, 2026).
Investor’s Business Daily highlighted the dominance of a small set of stocks in the S&P 500 (IBD, Jan 20, 2026).
Macrotrends provides historical presidential comparisons and long‑run index charts (Macrotrends historical datasets).
Business Insider maintains a president tracker with live index snapshots and comparisons (Business Insider president tracker).

All percentage figures and event descriptions above are attributed to the cited outlets and reflect reporting current as of Jan 20, 2026. For live index levels, market‑cap totals, and up‑to‑the‑minute data, consult primary market data providers. This article avoids prescriptive investment recommendations and is intended as a neutral, factual summary.

Further exploration: For readers tracking markets and wanting to manage cross‑asset exposure, consider consolidating research with institutional feeds and secure custody solutions for digital assets. For those active in cryptocurrencies alongside equities, Bitget Wallet provides self‑custody and integration with Bitget’s trading ecosystem.

More updates will be required over time as new data and events occur. If you want a regularly updated dashboard or a customized data pull for any of the metrics discussed (index returns, sector breadth, VIX episodes, Treasury yields), let us know the specific timeframe and measures and we can prepare a concise update.

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