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Joseph Chai from RHB Retail Research stated in a research report that NYMEX gold futures may shift to horizontal fluctuations.The analyst noted that the relative strength index of the futures is turning downward on the daily chart, which indicates that bullish momentum is weakening.According to Chai, on the downside, if the futures break below the 20-day simple moving average, it may attract selling pressure and drag the commodity towards the $4,600 per ounce level.The analyst added that on the upside, if the commodity breaks through the $5,000 per ounce resistance level, it will eliminate its bearish technical pattern.Spot gold fell 0.4% to $4,726.27 per ounce.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 3 accounts have staked $82,700 on "Will traffic in the Hormuz Strait return to normal before May?", with the current probability of "Yes" being 13.5%.Among these 3 accounts, Fernandoinfante has a win rate of 44% in the Iran market with a total profit of $6,000; wan123 has a win rate of 82% in the geopolitics market with a total profit of $524,000; kimma97 has a win rate of 42% in the geopolitics market with a total profit of $28,000.Based on the market's settlement rules, the International Monetary Fund Portwatch must announce within this month that the 7-day moving average of ship arrivals in the Hormuz Strait has reached or exceeded 60 to settle as "Yes".Currently, the value hovers between 3 and 10, while the pre-conflict normal passage level is between 60 and 110.Donald Trump just posted announcing that the United States will officially block ships from entering or leaving Iranian ports on April 13 at 10:00 AM Eastern Time. However, the action of completely blocking commercial ship passage contradicts the Trump administration's long-standing goal of lowering domestic oil prices. Geopolitical analysis points out that cutting off Iranian port shipping tends more towards an extreme pressure strategy aimed at increasing core negotiation leverage for future US-Iran contacts, rather than long-term disruption of global energy channels.It should be noted that the algorithm mechanism of the 7-day moving average allows a surge in daily traffic volume to have a decisive upward effect on the overall data. According to CNN citing MarineTraffic data, as of April 10, over 400 oil tankers, 34 LPG carriers, and 19 LNG carriers were stranded in the region. If the blockade measures are lifted as a negotiating chip in the short term and the waterway is opened, the concentrated release of these backlog ships will cause a sharp increase in the daily traffic data, potentially instantly raising the moving average value.Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually occur; there is a possibility of taking profits or stop-loss at a certain point after opening a position.Accounts:0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95;0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b;0x1d16b887703318582321c3c96687f565919ee798.

ChainCatcher news, according to a Cointelegraph report, the TRUMP token price surged by 50% after announcing a luncheon at Mar-a-Lago in March, but as of this Monday it has dropped more than 33%, with the current trading price at $2.8. Blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain data shows some crypto whales recently withdrew large amounts of TRUMP tokens from a certain exchange, with a single address holding over 1 million tokens, worth about $3.2 million. The luncheon will be held on April 25, and the top 297 TRUMP holders are invited to attend, with the top 29 able to join a private reception. CoinCarp data reveals more than 91% of the token supply is concentrated in the top 10 wallets. Analysts point out that the market's liquidity is limited and the concentrated holdings intensify price volatility, which may be influenced by upcoming midterm elections and related events in the future.