US-Iran negotiations and aircraft carrier movements proceed in parallel, with spot buying of Middle Eastern benchmark crude oil emerging continuously

⑴ On Wednesday, Middle East crude oil spot benchmark prices remained stable, with the market focusing on US-Iran negotiations and potential supply disruptions. The US stated it is considering deploying a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East, and the two countries are about to resume talks to avoid new conflicts. Oil prices rose by more than 1% during the day. ⑵ Continuous buying appeared in the spot market: 22 transactions were completed throughout the day in the Singapore window, with Upper Zakum cargoes changing hands consecutively around $68.60/barrel. Institutions such as Trafigura, Mercuria, and Shell all appeared on the buyers' list. ⑶ Divergent signals from the geopolitical supply side: On Tuesday, the US Treasury Department issued a general license for Venezuela's oil and gas production and exports, and the market expects the long-suspended heavy oil flows to resume. The February loading volume of ultra-low sulfur diesel at Russia's Primorsk port is expected to decrease by 17% month-on-month, constrained by both cold wave weather and reduced refinery output. There are also reports that Saudi Arabia and US companies plan to form a consortium to participate in oil and gas exploration and production in northeastern Syria. ⑷ While expectations for increased supply in the Atlantic Basin coexist with temporary tightening in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea, Middle East benchmark crude spot sentiment remains supported by Asian buying and geopolitical premiums.