Global Payments Drops to 356th in Daily Trading Volume as Gains After Earnings Lose Momentum

Overview of Market Activity

On February 25, 2026, Global Payments (GPN) ended the trading session down by 0.51%, lagging behind the overall market. The company recorded a trading volume of $390 million, placing it at 356th in terms of daily activity. After surging 16% earlier in February following its earnings announcement, the stock has since pulled back, indicating uncertainty among investors. This recent decline highlights a correction after the rapid gains that followed the release of the company’s fourth-quarter results and its outlook for 2026.

Main Factors Influencing Performance

The recent movement in Global Payments’ share price is largely attributed to its strong fourth-quarter 2025 earnings and optimistic forward guidance. The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $3.18, surpassing projections by $0.02 and representing a 12% increase from the previous year. Management projected adjusted EPS for 2026 in the range of $13.80 to $14.00, suggesting growth of 13–15% over 2025. This positive outlook, along with an expected operating margin increase of 80 to 100 basis points, fueled a 16% rally to $81 per share in late February. However, the stock has since stabilized, as analysts warn that much of the favorable news may already be reflected in the current price.

Analyst opinions remain mixed. TD Cowen and RBC Capital both raised their price targets but maintained cautious stances. TD Cowen increased its target to $91 from $90 but kept a Hold rating, citing concerns over valuation. RBC Capital set its target at $97, continuing with a Sector Perform rating. The consensus price target among analysts is $98.96, reflecting optimism about the company’s margin expansion and strategic direction. Still, TD Cowen pointed out that the recent rally leaves little margin for error, and the company must deliver on its promises to justify the higher valuation.

A significant driver for the stock has been Global Payments’ announcement of a $2.5 billion share repurchase program, which includes an immediate $550 million accelerated buyback. This initiative is part of a larger plan to return $7.5 billion to shareholders by 2027, signaling management’s confidence in the company’s value. These buybacks are supported by the sale of the Issuer Solutions business and the acquisition of Worldpay, moves that have streamlined operations and focused the company on merchant solutions. CEO Cameron Bready emphasized the success of the Genius platform and improved market strategies, with 2026 guidance based on continued margin and revenue growth.

Challenges and Outlook

Despite these positive developments, several risks remain. Integrating Worldpay and broader economic pressures, especially on small businesses, could limit growth in merchant solutions. TD Cowen cautioned that any shortfall in the targeted 150-basis-point operating margin expansion for 2026 would directly affect earnings growth. The timing of capital returns is also crucial: delays in the $2.5 billion buyback could weaken per-share results, while faster repurchases could enhance earnings. Investors are expected to pay close attention to the first-quarter results in May to see if revenue and margin trends are on track with the company’s annual targets.

Looking ahead, Global Payments’ ability to achieve its ambitious 2026 goals will be key. While the recent rally reflects confidence in the company’s strategic direction and margin improvements, reaching price targets of $91 or $98.96 will require consistent operational and financial execution. Potential challenges include increased competition in payment software and broader economic headwinds. For now, the stock’s performance is closely tied to upcoming events, with the next major test being whether the company can maintain its positive momentum through continued strategic and financial progress.