Caixin Futures: The non-ferrous metals sector remains under pressure and weak; precious metals fluctuate; lithium carbonate closes up 0.78% within a range.

(1) On the macro front, inflation expectations are rising, global major central banks are entering a rate hike cycle, and expectations of liquidity tightening are on the rise, putting overall pressure on non-ferrous metals. For copper, the supply side continues to be tight at the mine level in the long term, resulting in a market pattern of tight supply in mines and relatively sufficient supply in ingots; on the demand side, traditional consumption is in the off-season, but AI infrastructure construction provides a new curve for future copper demand—strong expectations but weak reality overall. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, while in the medium to long term, there is still upward momentum. (2) For aluminum, although the risk of geopolitical conflicts has eased recently, liquidity tightening still limits the upside. Guinea is promoting industrial transformation and plans to announce export controls in June. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. (3) For zinc, mine disturbances have caused domestic and international zinc concentrate processing fees to drop into negative territory again, reaching new historic lows, thereby providing bottom support. However, demand is entering the slack season and consumption is weak, so short-term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. (4) As for precious metals, rising inflation expectations, rate hikes last week by both the Eurozone and Japan, combined with expectations of hawkish policies from the Federal Reserve, have pushed liquidity tightening concerns to the forefront globally. Although geopolitical risks have marginally eased, precious metal prices remain under pressure. Given the recurring tensions in the Middle East and the cycle of rate hikes by major central banks worldwide, precious metals are expected to show weak performance in the short term. (5) The lithium carbonate market is showing range-bound fluctuations. The main contract closed up by 0.78% at 157,220 yuan/ton; the mid-price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 157,000 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan from the previous trading day. Warehouse stocks increased by 45 tons to 50,460 tons. The current market is engaged in a fierce battle between “near-term strong fundamentals” and “long-term bearish outlook.” Terminal demand shows strong resilience, while upstream lithium mine inventories at ports continue to decline, providing bottom support. However, the phased resumption of production at previously suspended mines and the gradual release of new overseas capacity have heightened concerns about market oversupply in the second half of the year, limiting rebound potential. There is a clear divergence of views among market participants, so lithium carbonate continues to move in a range-bound fashion.