Valero Energy Shares: Are Analysts on Wall Street Optimistic or Pessimistic?

Valero Energy Corporation: Performance and Outlook

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO), with a market capitalization of $61.8 billion, is a leading global producer and distributor of energy products. The company manufactures both traditional petroleum fuels and lower-carbon alternatives, as well as petrochemicals. Its operations are divided into three main segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. Valero’s products are marketed under recognized names including Valero, Diamond Shamrock, and Diamond Green Diesel.

Headquartered in San Antonio, Texas, Valero’s stock has significantly outpaced the overall market in the past year. Over the last 52 weeks, VLO shares have surged by 51.7%, compared to the S&P 500 Index’s 14.9% gain. Year-to-date, Valero’s stock is up nearly 24%, while the S&P 500 has risen just 1.1% in the same period.

Valero’s performance has also surpassed the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), which posted a 20.2% increase over the same 52-week period.

Although Valero exceeded expectations for the fourth quarter of 2025 with adjusted earnings per share of $3.82 and revenue totaling $30.37 billion, its stock experienced a slight decline on January 29. Investors reacted to a softer outlook for full-year profitability, as net income for 2025 is projected to fall to $2.3 billion ($7.57 per share) from $2.8 billion ($8.58 per share) in 2024. There were also concerns about weaker results in the Renewable Diesel segment, where operating income dropped to $92 million from $170 million year-over-year.

Looking ahead to the fiscal year ending December 2026, analysts forecast that Valero’s adjusted EPS will rise by 15.8% year-over-year, reaching $12.29. The company has a solid track record of surpassing earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters.

Out of 22 analysts covering Valero, the consensus recommendation is “Moderate Buy,” with 12 rating it as a “Strong Buy,” one as a “Moderate Buy,” and nine as “Hold.”

On February 9, Citi analyst Vikram Bagri increased Valero’s price target to $212, while maintaining a “Neutral” stance.

Currently, Valero’s share price is above the average analyst target of $193.95. The highest price target on Wall Street is $220, suggesting an 8.6% potential upside from current levels.